As we are close to the end of the year, the financial world looks vastly different from the “soft landing” optimism that permeated forecasts twelve months ago. 2025 will be remembered not just for the return of Donald Trump to the White House but also for the return of uncertainty and volatility in the markets, a year where the old correlations broke, and the treatment of “deficits” created headlines. From Wall Street to the Bucharest Stock Exchange, here is a retrospective of the events that defined 2025, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu. .
In 2025, we have seen one of the widest performance dispersions across asset classes that we’ve seen in years. If there was a “trade of the year,” it was undoubtedly the Gold. The yellow metal price has surged over 71% from the beginning of the year, really benefiting from an increase in trade uncertainty that we have seen with the administration in the US, higher geopolitical tensions, strong central bank demand, and also expectations for lower interest rates.
In stark contrast, oil markets drowned in supply. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, crude prices remained suppressed, with Brent trading at around $83 per barrel at the beginning of the year and now around $60. The oversupply trumped the geopolitical tensions pressuring down the prices. For energy importers, this was a lifeline; for the energy sector, a headwind.
The US, Europe, Japan and China equity market indexes offered two-digit returns this year despite the large drawdowns after Trump’s “Liberation Day” and the uncertainty brought by the tariffs imposed by the US administration. In fact, the talk about tariffs was driving the sentiment in the markets in the first half of the year. But then the markets somehow adjusted to the situation. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all reached fresh all-time highs, buoyed by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and optimism that interest rates had peaked.
While the US tech sector remained resilient, buoyed by sustained AI capex, European indices struggled under the weight of complex political situations on our continent. However, the proximity to the conflict in Ukraine and the Rearm Europe programme created opportunities for giants in the European Defence industry like Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales, BAE and others and this was evident in the industry’s performance on the stock exchanges.
In Romania, 2025 was a year of reckoning for the country’s economy. As warned by international bodies, the budgetary deficit size could no longer be ignored. The fiscal consolidation package—including the painful VAT hikes and the removal of the energy price cap—sent inflation spiking to 9.9% in September, a shock that eroded purchasing power. GDP growth stalled as the fiscal tightening dampened consumption.
In contrast, the BET Index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) saw an increase of over 44% from the beginning of the year. There is no surprise that, according to the latest eToro Retail Investor Beat survey, half (50%) of Romanian retail investors have local stocks in their portfolios, while 42% have foreign equities, 52% have a form of crypto assets, while three quarters have cash, including savings accounts.
In this context, 2025 was the year in which Bitcoin was solidifying as a store of value asset. While early-year predictions of $200,000 proved overly exuberant, the asset showed remarkable maturity. Trading today around the $87,000 level from its highest level of over $126.000, Bitcoin’s narrative shifted from “digital gold” to “institutional adoption”. But eventually ended on the weaker end of the spectrum, together with the US dollar, really losing ground as liquidity expectations are shifting, and therefore the risk appetite is also broadening out across global markets as well.
As we head into the new year, the message from 2025 is clear: markets rewarded quality, earnings resilience and exposure to structural themes, particularly across AI, energy transition and also selective emerging market opportunities. According to the eToro Retail Investor Beat, 64% of the Romanian retail investors and 56% of the global ones think the bull market will continue next year. For sure, in the night between the years, the investors will wish to have a successful 2026 in the financial markets. Happy New Year!
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