And Trump Must Be Defeated
After a debate performance (above) that seemed to confirm suspicions of mental non-acuity, everyone’s talking about whether Joe Biden should drop out of the race and the US president is consulting with his family at Camp David. Many approach it from the heart and not the head: We feel like we know our politicians, some of us like Biden, and we don’t want to make him sad. But all that should matter is defeating former President Donald Trump.
Biden has been an extremely successful person. He has managed to spend most of his adult like in public service, which is a euphemism for receiving a decent salary and ego-gratifying perks for influencing the lives of others. He was a leading senator, a two-term vice president, and he’s president at an age that’s well beyond when many Americans are forced to retire. He’s known personal tragedy, of course, but when it comes to his career he’s had a pretty spectacular run.
How has he performed as president? Critics say he has been terrible, and supporters claim he’s just bad at trumpeting astounding successes. In our polarized era, people don’t know which narrative to believe, so most default to their side and those in the middle are just confused.
It’s an important question, because if he is truly amazing, then perhaps some risks are warranted with the other factor to consider, which is the likelihood that he beats Trump. Is there something about Biden the Decider that America cannot live without?
My reading is that Biden has been a quite decent domestic policy president if you are on the center-left—but he has not been great. His infrastructure bill, CHIPS act and climate initiative (misnamed the Inflation Reduction Act) policies have been achievements, and the economy is humming along and far outpacing the European Union‘s. Inflation can be partly but not wholly blamed on the administration: its stimulus fueled it but also saved the economy after COVID, and inflation was a global phenomenon and is down.
But on the other hand, the leaky border in the south, and all the messaging around it, has been an own goal. He has done little to combat or criticize the hyper-progressive policies in some Democrat-run cities that most Americans disdain and which has handed the Republicans a massive electoral gift.
Most damningly, his reluctance to appear in public has kept Americans largely ignorant of his achievements and narrative—which is a capital crime for a politician. Moreover, he has failed to articulate a big vision or make even much impact on big issues like health care or gun control. He has not had a discussion with the American people, and he and his party have failed to exploit the gift the Republicans gave them by messing with abortion.
Foreign policy is a mixed bag, but the bad stuff is also mostly bad luck. So important is the U.S. role in the world, and so agitated are its allies at the prospect of a Trump return, that it is worth close examination:
- His pullout from Afghanistan was a disaster—but that was an endgame that the Trump administration had agreed to; Biden’s generals just somewhat botched it. The main thing, though, is that the U.S.-engineered Afghan army and government immediately collapsed, and that is on everyone who touched Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion to depose the now-returned Taliban. Trump’s criticism of Biden’s pullout is thus unfair and hypocritical (so, par for the course).
- On Gaza, his support for Israel has been brave and damaging politically; but he has not done nearly enough to bring Israel’s difficult leader Benjamin Netanyahu to heel, especially during his effort to pulverize Israel’s democracy which preceded and some believe led to the Gaza War (by splitting Israeli society, projecting weakness and thus inviting the Hamas attack on Oct. 7). Like liberals everywhere, Biden seems to have trouble carrying a big stick.
- On Ukraine, it is hard to criticize Biden. He has steadfastly stood by President Volodymyr Zelensky, but has refused critical weapons requests and tried to calibrate things so as to not spark World War III. The economic sanctions have not brought Russia to heel—largely because taking Russian oil off the global market entirely would have brought on a global recession. Staring down a maniac like Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is not easy, and most presidents would have done roughly what Biden did. Is Trump right that given his love affair with Putin, the invasion might not have happened had he won in 2020? Perhaps. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
- On China, Biden has stated the United States would defend Taiwan, which may be more than we can expect from Trump (so his return would greatly enhance the danger of a Chinese attack—and for that matter it would also tempt Azerbaijan’s dictator Ilham Aliyev to invade Armenia). Xi may have a plan to invade Taiwan, then say something nice about Melania to make the problem go away. On the economic front, Biden’s tariffs are basically Trump’s tariffs; the main difference is that even an enfeebled Biden probably understands that it is U.S. consumers that fork over the cash, which Trump probably does not.
- What does this amount to? As a statesman I give him a B, maybe a B-minus. As a politician, it’s a C. The debate performance—which was not about debating but about assessing Biden’s general viability—probably takes him to a D.This is probably not what you want going up against Trump, because the former president (weirdly, for a dolt) gets an A-plus as a politician. That, of course, suggests dark and uncomfortable truths about the state of human nature—because Trump gets a F as a human being: he is immoral, mendacious, incurious, petty, simpleminded, narcissistic and vindictive.Trump gets worse than an F, whatever that may be, on policy—if you are anywhere near the American center and are thinking clearly, you know he will do more harm to abortion rights, double down on inequality, do nothing on the gun madness and undermine democracy.And if you appreciate the U.S.-led liberal world order that has kept the peace, more or less, since 1945, you’d be right to consider panic. One of the oddities of U.S. history is that, rather differently from many countries, the major political parties have not differed all that much on foreign policy since then. Trump, meanwhile, is clearly inclined to burn down the house. Versus all previous administrations, he stands for a series of major shifts.
- From a paradigm that combined values with interests to pure transactionalism with a personal twist stemming from what might fairly be called megalomania;
- From multilaterism to bilateralism, since Trump hates alliances he cannot control;
- From practicality to political vengefulness, as Trump can be expected to reverse any policies he sees as his predecessor’s—in the way he disastrously pulled out of the world powers’ nuclear deal with Iran;
- From an instinct favoring democratic allies to an instinct favoring globally disruptive despots;
- From limited interventionalism to near-isolationism;
- From process and expertise to instinct, ego, and emotion.
His return would be a global emergency. In the past month or so I’ve attended geopolitics conferences in London and Yerevan, and I can assure the readers that America’s allies are in a panic. Risking defeat in November is too huge a gamble to take out of concern for Biden’s feelings.
The logistics of it would obviously be complex. It would be better if it didn’t look like he was forced out. And Vice President Kamala Harris is something of a problem. But the Democrats have a pretty deep bench: I am thinking of the swing-state trio of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Sen. Raphael Warnock from Georgia (as well as possibly that state’s Stacey Abrams). Gov. Gavin Newsom of California is vulnerable on wokeness and fails to come from a swing state, but he too seems made for national office. There are others.
I don’t know who should lead the ticket, but I suspect that in the current situation the Democrats should—if Biden somehow steps aside—present a hugely impressive gallery that also includes military and business figures. A shadow government, if you will, that will strike a contrast to the specter that is Trump.
