Domestic consumption in Romania dropped sharply at the start of 2026, falling by more than 25% in January compared to December 2025, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and signals from the SME association (IMM România).
We see a steep monthly decline in turnover volume in retail trade with a decrease of 25.3% in January 2026 compared to December 2025, indicating a significant contraction in demand—one of the main drivers of Romania’s economic growth in recent years.
All sectors were affected. The drop was widespread across every major retail segments:
- Non-food products: −27.7%
- Fuel sales: −26.6%
- Food, beverages, and tobacco: −21.5%
At the same time, inflation reached 9.6% year-on-year in January 2026, further eroding purchasing power.
This is the inflation outlier of the European Union, with Romania running 4-5x times the European average.
The drop in consumption directly impacts sectors like retail, production, logistics, and services, making it a broader systemic issue. Inflation will remain high like this, as costs are rising faster than income, and people are buying less because money buys less.
Consumption is a key indicator of economic activity, and so a decline of this magnitude suggests not only reduced demand for businesses, but also pressure on investment plans and potential l negative effects on employment. Unsurprisingly, business representatives warn that companies are already facing high operating costs and ongoing economic uncertainty.
SME demands for avoiding fiscal measures that could further suppress consumption, or policies that encourage investment and recovery are currently contradictory to what is happening. With a large budget deficit alongside the entrenched inflation, policymakers can only either tighten fiscal policy to restore stability, which risks dampening consumption and hurting smaller businesses in the short term, or maintain looser conditions and allow inflationary pressures to persist.
A simple prognosis? Hopefully things can stabilize within the next two to three years, even if one thing is certain: consumption will continue to cool. People will feel poorer before they feel stable, but a collapse in the tragic Greek style will probably avoid Romania.
