Dry January, Dry trade: Non-alcoholic stocks toast superior returns

● Non-alcoholic drinks brands deliver 69% return over 5 years while alcohol giants flounder, losing 26% over the same period

● Returns reflect growing demand for zero and low-alcohol alternatives

● Fitness and energy drink company Celsius leads gains with 211% return while spirits groups drag alcohol basket lower

As many around the world plan a booze-free start to the year, new analysis from trading and investment platform eToro makes for sober reading for listed alcohol producers, as investors continue to flock to non-alcoholic alternatives. This is a shift that is steadily reaching Eastern Europe too, where Romania’s beer market is seeing brisk growth in alcohol-free options, supported by rising health awareness and dedicated non-alcoholic launches from major brewers. eToro analysed two equal-weighted baskets of well-known beverage brands. One basket includes alcohol producers Diageo, Heineken, Pernod Ricard, Carlsberg and Anheuser-Busch InBev. The second basket includes non-alcohol producers Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Monster Beverage, Celsius Holdings and A.G. Barr.

Over the past five years, a basket of non-alcohol producing stocks rose 69%, while the alcohol producer basket fell 26%. The difference is not limited to the long term. Over the past year, non-alcohol brands gained 24%, compared with a 6% decline for alcohol producers. Over three years, non-alcohol stocks rose 18%, while alcohol stocks fell 29%.

Romanians are among the least likely in the EU to drink daily, with under 3% of the population reporting everyday alcohol use, placing Romania alongside Sweden and several Baltic states at the very bottom of the daily‑drinking ranking, according to Eurostat. Against this backdrop, Romania looks like a market where harmful drinking is still concentrated in sporadic excess rather than managed through long‑term moderation tools such as alcohol‑free substitutes or month‑long challenges.

In 2024, average per capita consumption of alcohol decreased for wine and distilled alcoholic beverages, while remaining constant for beer, compared to the previous year, according to a National Statistics Institute study. Average consumption of non-alcoholic beverages per capita in Romania, in 2024 compared to the previous year, evolved as follows: mineral water consumption decreased by 4.9%, soft drink consumption decreased by 3.3% and non-alcoholic beer consumption increased by 12.5%. The picture that emerges is of a non‑alcoholic drinks market where total volumes are under pressure from price sensitivity and taxes (especially in water and sugary soft drinks), but with robust growth in the small yet fast‑expanding non‑alcoholic beer niche.

Bogdan Maioreanu, Market Analyst at eToro said: “Romania’s drinking landscape shows a rapid pivot toward non‑alcoholic beer, especially among younger, more health‑attuned consumers. At the same time, the combination of shrinking wine and spirits volumes, flat beer, and double‑digit growth in non‑alcoholic beer suggests a generational reassessment of alcohol usage, with Gen Z and younger cohorts selectively substituting into no/low formats for reasons of responsibility, safe driving and lifestyle changes. But with 2026 a World Cup year in football, which traditionally boosts alcoholic beer sales, this trend will be put to the ultimate test.

Dry January, the movement, which began as a public health campaign in 2013, has expanded well beyond its UK origins and is now a global phenomenon, with official campaigns and widespread participation in numerous countries.

Maximilian Wienke, Market Analyst at eToro, added: “Dry January brings renewed attention to changing drinking habits, but markets have been reflecting this shift for years. Traditional alcohol producers have struggled to deliver growth, while demand has increasingly moved towards non-alcoholic, functional and better-for-you drinks. What we are seeing is not consumers abandoning alcohol, but investors reallocating towards categories with clearer volume growth, pricing power and relevance to younger, more health conscious consumers.”

 Within the alcohol basket, long-term performance has been consistently weak. Diageo and Pernod Ricard are both down more than 40% over five years, while no alcohol producer in the group delivered a positive return over three years. Beer makers have shown some resilience over the past year, with Carlsberg up 21% and Anheuser-Busch InBev up 14%, but this has not been enough to offset broader declines.

By contrast, non-alcohol brands have delivered broader and more sustained gains. Growth has been driven by energy and functional drink makers. Celsius Holdings, owner of brands including CELSIUS and Rockstar Energy is up 211% over five years, while Monster Beverage has gained 71%. More established soft drink companies have also contributed positively, with Coca-Cola up 33% and A.G. Barr, owner of brands including IRN-BRU and Rubicon, up 28% over the same period.

Commenting on the analysis, Maximilian Wienke, Market Analyst at eToro, said: “The beverage sector is not in decline, but it is undergoing a shift in where growth comes from. Investors are becoming far more selective, backing companies with the right product mix, innovation and exposure to evolving consumption habits. Brand strength alone is no longer enough, and broad exposure risks diluting returns.”

Table showing performance comparison: Alcohol versus Non Alcohol producers. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future results.

Romania has more wineries per head than any other country in Europe