Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not in a position to offer the terms of a just peace for Ukraine and a healthy long-term peace from the perspective of Europe’s security – the only kind of peace acceptable to Ukraine and Europe. Otherwise, Putin would be out in one second.
In fact, the two dimensions that Putin cannot offer on the platter of peace talks intertwine, complement and enhance each other.
What, in the paradigm of peace, would be just, desirable, healthy and productive for Ukraine would be the same for the rest of Europe (possibly with the notable exceptions of Hungary and Slovakia).
For a just peace automatically implies recognition on the ground, as well as political recognition of Kyiv’s military and diplomatic efforts during the three and a half years of war. Also, a just peace would inevitably include a formula to condemn and even punish Russia for the armed aggression unleashed on February 24, 2022.
In fact, all this is the foundation of the stated claims and objectives pursued by the Ukrainians and their European allies, just as, on the other hand, they are the reason why Putin has continued the war despite the slow progress of his army, despite the unsustainable human losses and despite the enormous expenses that strangle Russia’s economy.
No matter how many hunting stories about productive negotiations with Russia Donald Trump and his amateur aide, Steve Witkoff, both before and after the Alaska moment, the reality is that they are either fiction or a sign of misunderstanding on the part of the two of them about the situation in which the Russian dictator finds himself.
If Putin were to agree to a peace that would satisfy even in some modest measure both Ukraine and its European allies, in a short time the entire edifice of his criminal regime would be shaken by a strong earthquake at home combined with a lethal discrediting abroad, especially among the vassal states and opportunistic partners that Moscow has today.
And Putin himself risks paying with his life at worst, or with his freedom at best.
Judging by the latest messages released on Saturday and Sunday by Trump and Witkoff, when they meet Monday at the White House, the two will slip under the noses of Zelensky and the European leaders who accompany him enticing stories (and arm-lock pressure) about security guarantees designed by Washington and supposedly historical and courageous concessions which Moscow would be willing to make.
All this, of course, in exchange for historic territorial concessions that Kyiv would have to make, potential security breaches that it would have to accept like a lamb being fattened for Easter the rest of the continent, plus a “strategic” clemency towards Russia and its criminal leader.
The lack of credibility represents the biggest breach in the story of these negotiations to end the conflict because, unlike other similar situations in history, this time the lack of credibility comes from not only the aggressor but also from the main arbitrator.
- From the aggressor’s perspective, things are clear as shown above. Putin cannot make concessions that would lead to a just and lasting peace without risking personally losing everything – power, freedom and maybe even his life. And if he were to announce that he was still willing to make such concessions, no one could believe him, no responsible leader could imagine that he isn’t hiding something (of course, no leader except Trump, who is rushing towards achieving any form of peace out of interests that have nothing to do with the idea of responsibility for the immediate fate of Ukraine and for the long-term fate of Europe’s security).
- From the perspective of Donald Trump, the main arbiter, the lack of credibility is just as harmful, an aspect we have written about on other occasions. I’ll just give you a brief summary: Trump has a vast history, in a short history, of bent ideas on dramatic themes and has displayed shocking changes of mind and with sometimes tragic consequences on key global issues. Such was the case with the tariffs, the Gaza file, NATO, the broader relationship with America’s traditional and loyal allies. And, as we well know by now, it has been the case countless times and to unbelievable depths in the Russian-Ukrainian issue. The value that the words spoken and the promises he makes today will have on tomorrow and the day after tomorrow is the fundamental and unsolvable problem that Donald Trump poses. The speed and depth at which the US president’s changes his mind should not let Zelensky, nor the European leaders he consults with and those who are accompanying him to the White House on Monday sleep during the meeting. Add to this mix the affinity that Trump shows towards Putin and especially the inability that the American leader has shown in the contacts and negotiations (direct and through emissaries) carried out in recent months with the Russian dictator.
After three and a half years of war and after more than half a year of Trump’s presidency, there is nothing new on the Eastern Front. Everything is as it was when it started: Ukraine and its allies must wrest peace from Putin, and not let themselves be seduced by the classic chimeras sold by Moscow and the aberrant pressures plus Trump’s unreliable promises.
Peace snatched – militarily and diplomatically – and not peace gobbled down quickly is the only realistic chance to achieve a just and healthy peace.
Can such a thing be possible? Of course.
After all, neither Putin nor Trump can deliver what they claim they can. If that were the case, the Putin would have won the war in a week, and Trump would have made peace in one day.
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