Germany’s carmakers, the flagship brands of Europe’s largest economy, are losing market share and generating weaker returns for investors than their global competitors, new research by trading and investing platform eToro reveals.
eToro’s research tracks the performance of the world’s top 15 carmakers and reveals a decade of decline for Germany’s listed carmakers (Mercedes-Benz Group, BMW, Volkswagen and Porsche), with the group seeing a collective share price decline of -9% in the past year and -21% over the past decade.
On average, the top 15 carmakers (inclusive of the four German listed brands) have seen share price gains of 105% over the past decade, rising by 22% in the last year alone.
In China, the world’s largest car market, Germany’s flagship carmakers are seeing deliveries fall while they struggle to keep up with local competitors. VW was surpassed by China’s BYD as the best-selling local brand in late 2022 while its market share in China fell to 14.5% last year (down from 19.3% in 2020).[1]
Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz deliveries in China contracted for the third year in a row, falling -2% in 2023.[2] Porsche deliveries in China also fell by 15% last year.[3]
German carmakers have also underperformed in the EV segment against American and Chinese EV competitors Tesla and BYD. Over the past decade, Tesla’s share price has grown 1229% with BYD rising 374%. Tesla commands 19.9% of the global EV market while VW, its closest German competitor holds just 4.8%.[4] some 84% of China’s EV market is dominated by local manufacturers, with German car brands gaining only 5% market share.[5]
“The global listed auto industry is the most divided of any we have seen. Germany’s much vaunted car industry is facing unprecedented competition on pricing and technology,” said eToro’s Global Markets Strategist Ben Laidler. “Within Europe, many consumers are keeping hold of older models for longer or choosing to go car free. Meanwhile American, Chinese and Indian competitors are developing cheaper models and are leading the EV segment, threatening the market position of German carmakers.”
Legacy global competitors are also faring better than Germany’s listed car brands. Japan’s Honda has increased its share price by 50% in the 12 months, rising 64% over 10 years. Meanwhile Toyota has risen 95% in the past year and 232% over the past decade.
Index performance:
| German cars price index | Global cars price index (15 largest carmakers by market cap) |
|
| YTD | 5% | -3% |
| 1Y | -9% | 22% |
| 5Y | 14% | 123% |
| 10Y | -21% | 105% |
Individual stock performance:
| VW | BMW | Mercedes-Benz | Porsche | Honda | Toyota | Tesla | BYD | |
| YTD | 12% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 24% | 40% | -26% | 13% |
| 1Y | -12% | 2% | 1% | -25% | 50% | 95% | 14% | -15% |
| 5Y | 45% | 35% | -17% | Pre-IPO | 75% | 163% | 1052% | 284% |
| 10Y | -29% | 14% | 25% | Pre-IPO | 64% | 232% | 1229% | 374% |
| Ferrari | Stellantis | GM | Ford | Maruti Suzuki | Hyundai | Tata Motors | |
| YTD | 23% | -1% | 24% | 0% | 26% | 25% | 28% |
| 1Y | 51% | 42% | 35% | 3% | 46% | 25% | 110% |
| 5Y | 206% | 93% | 14% | 16% | 92% | 81% | 370% |
| 10Y | Pre-IPO | 356% | 31% | -25% | 569% | 7% | 149% |
[1] Volkswagen AG Annual Report 2023
[2] Mercedes Benz AG Annual Report 2023
[3] Porsche AG Annual Report 2023
[4] China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Bloomberg
[5] China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Bloomberg
