Trump return finds too much of the world on fire, and ready for change
By Robert Hamilton and Dan Perry
Foreign policy may not have been a central issue during the recent election, and it hasn’t been a decisive factor in American presidential campaigns since World War II. But with Donald Trump returning to the White House, the potential implications for global geopolitics are huge.
Trump’s approach deviates dramatically from the postwar consensus that has seen the U.S. act as a global stabilizer, using its power to promote democracy and ensure security — even when doing so came with financial and military sacrifices. Trump’s unpredictability and willingness to upend long-standing norms could set off a wave of radical change in key regions, potentially reshaping the global order as we know it.
Ukraine
The most dramatic change could occur in Ukraine. The current administration backed Ukraine’s sovereignty but imposed limits on the use of US weapons that hinder Ukraine’s ability to strike back at Russia. While this has frustrated Ukraine, Trump will likely be far worse. He has long demonstrated affinity for Vladimir Putin while harboring deep disdain for Ukraine’s President Zelensky. This disdain stems in part from Zelensky’s refusal to be shaken down by Trump over Joe Biden during the 2019 impeachment scandal.
The stage could be set for Trump to reduce aid to Ukraine to push Zelensky into negotiations with Russia. Former Trump advisors have articulated such a plan and repeated Russia’s narrative of NATO enlargement triggering the war. Other former Trump officials have proposed more robust support for Ukraine, including lifting the restrictions on Kyiv’s use of US weapons to strike inside Russia.
An abandonment of Ukraine could could trigger an earthquake in European and Ukrainian politics. The European Union would then face a difficult choice: step in to fill the void left by the U.S. and rapidly bolster its own defense and aid mechanisms for Ukraine, or risk Russian expansionism moving unchecked.
Th risk would be Putin perceiving a green light to pursue further expansions. Indeed, each time he believes he has faced down the West, as in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, and Syria in 2015, he has launched a larger war within a few years.
Middle East
Trump seems isolationistbut can also perceive opportunities for a win. The situation in the Middle East is untenable, with Gaza headed toward forever-war status and Iran – whose proxy militias all over the region are an outrage – approaching nuclear weapon status. Someone needs to take a hammer to much of the leadership in the region, including Qatar, which seeks respectability yet refuses to squeeze Hamas into giving up in Gaza. Trump’s nonchalance about working with authoritarian regimes and his personal relationship with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman may assist.
If Trump makes clear to Iran that it will face military action unless it ends its regional chaos project and stops the nuclear program, this will be applauded in both Jerusalem and Arab capitals. If he pressures Israel – where he has support and credibility – into freezing Jewish settlement deep in the West Bank and assisting with a reasonable day-after plan in Gaza, it will be applauded the world over (including by most Israelis).
China and Taiwan
Taiwan stands as a beacon of democracy in East Asia, and its case for U.S. protection rests on a longstanding commitment to democratic ideals. But Trump’s view of Taiwan will again be more transactional than ideological.
If Trump opts to leverage Taiwan as a bargaining chip in his trade disputes with China, the region could face heightened tensions. A massive tariff war with China – which Trump threatens – could factor into this.
NATO
One of Trump’s claimed achievements during his previous administration was his insistence that NATO allies meet their defense spending targets, which nudged them a little. As a result, several member states increased their budgets. Expect him to redouble efforts to demand even higher contributions from NATO members (meaning, at the agreed level).
The accession of Sweden and Finland has strengthened NATO, but Trump’s ambivalence toward NATO could create divisions within the alliance.
South Caucasus
This small and often overlooked region may see major repercussions. Armenia’s ongoing pivot from reliance on Russia to an alignment with the West signals its desire to embrace democracy and human rights, values that supposedly align with the West and contrast sharply with those of Azerbaijan, led by Ilham Aliyev. Yet Trump’s record on authoritarian regimes suggests little empathy for Armenia’s ideals. His admiration for “strongman” leaders – along with Azerbaijan’s oil and gas wealth and role as an energy transit country – may lead him to favor Azerbaijan’s ambitions or to disregard Armenia’s plight altogether.
This presents a severe risk for Armenia, whose security situation is already tenuous. A Trump administration less inclined to protect Armenia’s democratic aspirations could force European powers into a more proactive stance, but this could create fractures within NATO and strain relations within Europe, leaving the door open for increased Russian or Turkish influence in the South Caucasus.
Georgia, long a stalwart democratic and pro-Western country, has been descending into authoritarianism and anti-Westernism while the West did little. Georgia’s recent elections were clearly manipulated, and tens of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets in protest. Georgia’s government was certainly cheered by Trump’s election, assuming it will now have carte blanche to continue to repress civil society and turn the country toward Russia, against the expressed will of its people.
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Much will depend on Trump’s foreign policy appointments. If he appoints establishment figures who might restrain his impulses, that is one thing. But a team of toadies unable to restrain him would be another. A policy not driven by vendettas, pettiness and ignorance would, for many, be the biggest surprise for all. In that sense, Marco Rubio for Secretary of State is promising. Some of the others, less so.
Colonel (Ret.) Robert Hamilton heads Eurasia Research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, has been a professor at the U.S. Army War College and served in a variety of overseas posts, including in the Middle East.
