Romanian retail investors remain pessimistic about the prospects of the local economy, and their confidence in their own income and living standards has now started to erode as well, according to the latest quarterly eToro Retail Investor Beat survey.
Although the level of distrust in the Romanian economy has slightly improved compared to the previous quarter, it still remained high in the first quarter of 2026, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.
Now 65% of Romanian retail investors say they are not confident about its prospects, down from 70% at the end of 2025 but still a majority. It is worth noticing that despite this more investors are seeing a risk by the state of the Romanian economy to their portfolios (+2 percentage points) than the previous quarter.
The news that the budget deficit narrowed to 7.65% of GDP in 2025 (cash basis) from 8.67% in 2024 might explain this increase in confidence. Despite the slight progress, this low level of trust in the Romanian economy is not surprising, given that the country continues to struggle with slow growth and high inflation.
Thus, Romania continues to have the highest inflation in the EU, and investors are bracing for even higher inflation due to the global economic situation triggered by the Iran conflict and the steep increase in oil prices, which translates into higher prices at the fuel pump.
We have seen a decrease in confidence in personal income, living standards and the cost of living. In the first quarter of 2026, only 66% of Romanian retail investors were confident about their living standards compared with 70% at the end of 2025.
Among the age groups, the most confidence is seen again in the youngest generation, Gen Z (18-27 years old), with 76%, followed by Gen X (44-59) with 66%, Millennials (28-43) 64%, and Boomers (60-78) with 47%. The latest poll shows the same percentages in the level of confidence about job security, at 74% of respondents as in the previous quarter.
The latest quarterly poll results show however that despite the uncertainties that influenced stock markets in the past two quarters, and despite the lack of confidence in the prospects of the global economy (52%), 82% of Romanian investors still remained confident in their own investment portfolios. It is possible for volatility in the markets to create opportunities for entry in some assets that might have been considered expensive before, and it may be that many investors believe their long-term strategies are not affected by recent developments.
In terms of portfolio allocation, 50% of Romanian retail investors own local stocks, 37% have foreign equities, 51% own a form of crypto assets, 43% have domestic bonds, while almost three-quarters (73%) keep cash, including in savings accounts.
When asked in which sectors they intend to increase their investments, 19% of Romanian investors answered technology, followed by energy (17%), financial services (16%), Real Estate (7%) and utilities, also 7%. Despite the fact that the survey was conducted in the two weeks before the start of the Iran conflict and does not account for its effects on oil and natural gas prices, we are seeing a slightly increased interest in energy compared with the last quarter of 2025. It might be the result of the news about the US military force buildup in the Gulf during the month of February.
Romania is particularly vulnerable right now to the risk of external shocks, including further energy‑price volatility and trade‑policy disruptions affecting the EU export channels. The high prices of oil and natural gas are particularly concerning as their effects will sooner rather than later spill over into the prices of goods and services.
This is highly visible in how investors are looking at the main risks for their investment portfolios, where inflation remains this quarter the main concern for 25% of Romanian retail investors, as it has been since the third quarter of last year. It is followed by a possible recession of the global economy (24%), the state of the Romanian economy (20%), and an international conflict (15%).
But the Middle East situation, which was largely unforeseen by investors, is likely to emerge as a major threat for Romanian investors in the next quarter if it continues to drag on, spiking fuel prices and inflation further and disrupting the local and international economies.
