April 2 & 3, 2025
- Stock markets in the US, Europe and Asia tumble.
- The World Trade Organization estimates a 1% decrease in international trade in 2025.
- The European Central Bank had already anticipated since March that the trade war envisaged by Trump could boost inflation in the short term and characterized the economic climate as one marked by “high and exceptional uncertainty”.
- According to Capital Economics’ calculations, quoted by Deutsche Welle, if the US tariffs remain in place, China’s GDP would shrink by about 0.5% while GDP in the euro area and Japan would face a decline of about 0.2%.
- US economic growth could suffer a decline of 1-1.5%, according to a strategist at Deutsche Bank, also quoted by DW.
- Russia, Cuba, Belarus and North Korea look good in the picture – the four dictatorships have been spared from the US president’s tariff fury.
What’s next from here?
Certainly, there are complications (growing by the day) for international trade, for every country’s economic performance. One, because of the actual tariffs imposed by Trump, tariffs of such a level, as The Economist pointed out, turn back the clock by 120 years. And secondly, because of the reprisals that will follow from those affected.
These retaliatory measures are a certainty and at this moment the unknowns are only related to their magnitude. China, the EU, India, the UK and many countries in East and South Asia will only have to weigh the strategy they will use.
The reality is that black Wednesday, April 2, 2025 will be followed by more black days with the risk of escalation remaining extremely high. We have to see the response of Europe and Asia, then we need to see the response from the US to the response, then the response given to the response that had been given to the response – and so on.
The worst scenario would be for this chain of retaliation to carry on. It would be absurd and especially extremely dangerous to go even there, but at the same time the temptation will be large.
Not all countries will be affected the same, of course. And some will simply be affected directly, while others will be affected indirectly, that is, rather because some will be very affected. It will be a bit like in a pandemic, when only a few get the virus from the primary source, while the vast majority get sick from secondary, tertiary infections and so on. In other words, the tariff disease caused by Trump could wreak havoc due to the high degree of contagion.
As in any crisis, in the tariff crisis, which has been induced by Trump, will also present opportunities, not just various specters of disasters. For some, the opportunities will be a little bigger, for others a little smaller, and for others there will be almost nothing at all.
But the geographical scope that the American president has given to his trade war, combined with the huge level of percentages associated with these tariffs, will mean that any opportunities will only appear in the medium and long term, and possible disasters will descend as early as tomorrow. And, by the way, in order to be able to enjoy life in 10 years, you must first of all live until tomorrow, then until next year and so on.
Therefore countries targeted by Donald Trump’s customs chainsaw are being pushed into a complex and expensive labor:
- To find emergency support formulas for the affected local industries – production, jobs, competitiveness will be in danger. And this will mean a significant and immediate budgetary effort. Given that in Europe, for example, an unprecedentedly large and urgent budgetary effort is mandatory to be made at the same time to increase security – following Trump’s own decisions to semi-extract the US from this framework and at the same time to get closer to Russia – the “happiness” induced by this labor will be at drunken levels.
- To identify new markets, but also to resize others. Such a thing is impossible overnight and cannot be done without some syncopes.
- Finally, depending on the exposure of each one on the American market and the possibilities of reorienting their exports in other directions, some countries will encounter greater problems than others in maintaining social peace at safe parameters. And, of course, within broader blocs and partnerships, there is a risk that some of the members will exaggeratedly prioritize the search for salvation on their own, affecting the unity necessary for an optimal articulated response to the challenge posed by Trump.
Everything that is going wrong now and what is going to happen badly in the future is based on one man and one name alone: Donald Trump.
His desire for power and especially the perverse way he seeks to exercise it are the fuel that propel this fireball.
Four of the top five presidential candidates applauded his victory
In an ideal world, the costs of this misfortune would fall to the applauders of Donald Trump’s victory in the elections. But in the real world, everyone will pay, and the applauders will look for the most sophisticated ways to justify their positioning.
Economically, Romania will by no means be exempt from the Trumpist tariff shock, and as any mega-economic shock at global level will also pose problems of weakening the degree of security and increasing the risk of conflicts, let’s face it, Romania will not be able to remain an island of happiness in a turbulent ocean.
What Trump is doing now is in fact what Trump had announced since the campaign, so no applause for Trump’s victory can avail itself of the innocent refrain, in its various forms of manifestation: “I didn’t know”, “I didn’t believe”, “I didn’t suspect” and “I didn’t expect”.
As we have presidential elections coming soon, it would be healthy to remember how each of the five main candidates for the presidential elections in Romania reacted to Donald Trump’s victory and inauguration.
George Simion
- “Donald Trump won! It is a victory of the patriots, against the globalists. I expect that all this neo-Marxist, woke, transhumanist ideology will stop there and we will be left alone. We have important elections in Romania. We can also in Romania.” (November 6, 2024)
- “We fight for the same values … We share the same objectives: to put our countries first, to collaborate, to grow economically and to fight against the new Marxism, to fight against propaganda, to fight against those who want to take our children away from us, from our families, and want to indoctrinate them.” (January 19, 2025)
Victor Ponta
- “After Donald Trump won his first term, in April 2017, I wrote that I appreciate a President who puts his country first.” (November 6, 2024)
- “I am proud to be one of the Romanians who can participate in the Events organized on occasions
- have the courage to get on the train of change led by Trump & Musk! But, always, Romania comes first!!!” – (January 20, 2025)
Crin Antonescu
- “Yes, I wanted the victory of the Republicans and Donald Trump.” (March 5, 2025)
Nicușor Dan
- “Will there be difficult moments? Definitely.” (January 20, 2025)
Elena Lasconi
- “The United States elected its president, after an electoral race that kept not only the Americans in their mouths, but an entire planet. Congratulations to President Donald Trump. After Donald Trump’s victory, Romania will remain the trusted partner of the United States and I am ready to work together for prosperity and security.” – (November 6, 2024)
- “You have all my respect for the great things you have done. (…) You are a true leader of the people, just like me.” (December 8, 2024)
In Qatargate Fiasco, Netanyahu’s ‘Witch Hunt’ Narrative Takes Cues from Trump
