Almost no government in the Middle East (or anywhere) wants the group to continue to hold the Gazans hostage. It’s high time they made this clear.
The devastating war in Gaza could end immediately if Hamas laid down its arms, and this is what most governments in the Middle East and the world actually desire. It would be a gift first and foremost to the people of Gaza – who have been living under a terrorist mafia for 16 years. So why are we not hearing more clarity?
This week brings fevered anticipation about an Israeli offensive against Rafah, the town in the south of the strip where almost 1.5 million people – almost two-thirds of the Gaza population – have been sheltering as Israel operated to the north. Many huddle in tents awaiting tanks to roll in and try to uproot their terrorist overlords.
President Biden finally spoke to Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend, demanding a real plan to protect the population. Egypt is warning Israel to not compel refugees to cross the border into Sinai, and ever threatening this could endanger the peace. Nerves are truly on edge, so perhaps the thinking is not straight.
Israel’s track record on protecting the Gaza population is — in the most charitable possible view — inglorious. Many civilians have been killed — perhaps two-thirds of the 27,000 reported deaths in Gaza so far. Israel and its defenders — like West Point urban warfare expert John Spencer – will tell you that ratio is not only acceptable but even laudable in a situation in which armed maniacs are dug in and holding a population hostage. Israel’s critics see genocide and are disinterested in excuses.
The global discourse has focused on two scenarios in the coming days.
One is that Israel will invade Rafah soon enough to try to finish the job it started, of ending the nightmare than began in 2007 when Hamas violently overthrew the Palestinian Authority, the arguably moderate autonomy government set up by the 1990s peace process and overseen by the geriatric and rather unpopular Mahmoud Abbas. There is every reason to fear a bloodbath — for the Gaza civilians for sure, but also for Israel’s soldiers and possibly its 130-odd hostages, who are almost certainly held by the Hamas leadership in tunnels beneath the unfortunate Gazans. This scenario is only bolstered by the overnight rescue of two hostages around Rafah — which gives Israel a sort of model for success based on military pressure.
The other scenario in discussion — and demanded by various protestors in the West — is that a cease fire will somehow be negotiated at the last minute that will involve the return of the hostages. There has been some odd optimism about this which I have struggled to understand. Hamas has not dropped its demand that in exchange for the hostages Israeli troops pull out of Gaza and end the war — and it is extremely difficult to see Israel agreeing to it. Israel seems willing at best to a temporary halt – after which it would resume the hunt for Hamas leader Yihya Sinwar, now without the complication of the hostages. You can see why he’s reluctant.
A reasonable observer whose brain is not addled by TikTok might also at least understand why Israel wants Hamas gone — almost no matter the cost and the devastation to its global brand. It is close to axiomatic among the Israeli public that after the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7, in which the group invaded unprovoked and brutally massacred 1,200 people, the vast majority civilians, that gig is up.
I cannot emphasize this enough: Although the Gazan people have suffered horribly and heartbreakingly in the war, it is in their interest for Hamas to be removed, if security is in any way what they seek. The group runs a theocratic police state and provokes wars with the far stronger Israel every few years. It bans beer and slots their children to martyrdom and nothing else. They were never elected to run a government either, contrary to the muddled understanding of some journalists.
I am confident that the majority of Gazans I know would be glad to be rid of Hamas (which is not the same as loving Israel – they just don’t want their homes destroyed and lives endangered with regularity). Those among them who want a two-state solution in which Israel makes way for a Palestinian state on part of the Holy Land may also recall that Hamas opposes this outcome and has being carrying out terrorist attacks since the 1990s precisely to scuttle it. Hamas and its jihadi fellow travelers prefer a war to the finish with Israel, and the West, and Muslim infidels as well.
There is little doubt that the Sunni Arab regimes of the region understand all this and would love to see the end of Hamas, a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood which is the enemy of them all. The leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the various emirates, Morocco and other countries would be swiftly strung up if Hamas got its way.
That may even apply at this point to Qatar, which is a sort-of patron of Hamas. The peninsular Gulf state is friendly to the Brotherhood and to the troublemaking ayatollahs of Iran, hosts certain exiled leaders of Hamas, plays the intermediary and has happily funneled monies to the group in the past. But its leaders might not necessarily want their brand forever attached to the rejectionist disaster that Hamas represents. Rather they fought to host the World Cup, aim to influence with Al Jazeera, invest billions in Western universities, and want a seat at the table of civilized nations. Qatar’s typical official sounds more like Davos Man than a martyr to jihad.
So why are the Arab nations ignoring the third scenario in Gaza – which is the only one that makes sense? Why are they not making it completely clear to Hamas that its time is up and it must lay down arms? Why do they not threaten to ensure that the group will receive no more funding from any source that they control if it does not?
If that were the direction of things, Israel – even under the difficult, desperate, and ever-scheming Netanyahu – would probably agree to help unblock the current blockage by agreeing to hand over civilian control of the strip, in one form or another, once it is demilitarized, to a reformed and reinvigorated Palestinian Authority. Make no mistake – Israel opinion will positively howl for it.
Israel would probably also agree to allow the Hamas leadership to leave the strip alive, if a country can be found to accept them. This would be an excellent opportunity for Iran to make itself useful to anyone for the first time in decades.
I understand that the Arab leaders don’t want to hitch their wagon to Netanyahu, who is increasingly toxic even in Israel. And I understand Hamas may still disagree. But there is value to creating pressure. It would impact both Netanyahu and Hamas, who are in a bizarre way the strangest of bedfellows, united in opposition to peace.
Mainly, though, the issue is philosophical. If you think there’s no way Hamas would agree to surrender, consider what that actually says. Its leaders are fanatical but quite possibly not oblivious, and they know they have given Israel no choice; they know Israel is willing to risk mass killing of more Gazans. They cannot prevail militarily. Even the Nazis surrendered. Why hold out at all cost? What is to be gained? How indifferent would you have to be to the suffering of your own people? How evil??
I have an answer. You’d have to be exactly as evil as your supporters on US campuses are stupid. Everyone else, from every corner of the planet, should put aside prognostications and use every conceivable lever to compel a Hamas surrender. Anything else is madness.
