Financial markets enter 2026 with a constructive tone, and with new all-time highs in the US but also some European markets, including Romania. However, the year began with an unusually abrupt headline as the US captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, prompting an increase in geopolitical tensions and a decrease in oil prices.
Uncertainty may be one of the forces that will shape the financial markets in 2026. It will not be the only one, though, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu
The Venezuela situation is still in development and it is uncertain how it will end. Regardless, if instability drags on, global financial markets may still be relatively insulated. Previous US enforcement actions have already reduced Venezuelan exports without triggering sustained price moves.
This suggests much of the disruption risk is already priced in, unless there is a broader escalation. So far, the US Crude oil prices dropped to around $56 per barrel, while Brent is sitting at around $60 per barrel.
So far, the financial markets started the year in a continuation of the rally from 2025. The S&P 500, DAX and even the Bucharest Stock Exchange BET index reached new all-time high prices at the beginning of this year. In 2025, markets rewarded quality, earnings resilience and exposure to structural themes, particularly across AI, energy transition and also selective emerging market opportunities. In 2026, against a backdrop of easing inflation, softer but still positive global growth and interest rates may gradually find a new floor, risk assets retain support, but markets are likely to be less forgiving of weak balance sheets, fragile margins, or overextended narratives.
In this context, 2026 might be a year of selective growth, where investors are becoming more discerning in terms of what will drive returns. The first element that might drive the markets is earnings, cash flows and capital discipline. Earnings quality, it is possible to remain front and center in 2026. Markets have become much less forgiving and investors are increasingly rewarding companies that show strong balance sheets, that have pricing power and that have disciplined capital allocation.
The previous market growth factor, tech and AI developments, will shape the markets this year too. AI continues to be a dominant structural force in the market, but the narrative is evolving as the investment cycle is shifting from the big tech beneficiaries to the broader ecosystem as AI adoption rises. This means that the data center buildouts, the semiconductor supply chains, cooling, power and grid infrastructure and high bandwidth memory will likely attract substantial capital investments in 2026. But the ecosystem has real constraints, like energy availability, materials bottlenecks and the cost of scaling this infrastructure as well. So some volatility is to be expected because these constraints might influence analysts and investors as well.
Another factor that will influence the markets is going to be monetary policy divergence. The global policy backdrop is not set to be synchronized anymore. The Fed obviously enters 2026 with front-loading rate cuts, while the ECB is taking a step back. According to FedWatch, the market is seeing two interest rate cuts in 2026, with the first one in June. A softening US labor market makes policymakers largely see rate cuts as a question of “when, not if,” implying a bias toward accommodative or at least non‑restrictive policy rather than renewed tightening. Also in May, the current chair’s mandate will end and Donald Trump will nominate the next chair of the Fed. Markets will look with extreme interest. By contrast, the ECB has been more cautious, with a slower and more tentative easing path.
Above all these, the uncertainty that the Trump administration continues to bring to the markets will shape 2026, where gold, the top performer of last year, might continue its rise. But uncertainty will also influence the commodities and financial markets. In this climate, according to the latest eToro Retail Investor Beat survey, 56% of the global retail investors and 64% of the Romanian ones consider that the bull market will continue this year.
The beginning of the year has already brought volatility and also investment opportunities. 2026 looks to have a broadly positive backdrop for risk assets, and despite this, drawdowns might be imminent and normal. This is reinforcing the need for investors to pair diversified exposure with a sharp focus on earnings resilience, policy divergence, and the structural themes, as these are reshaping the global market landscape.
About eToro Retail Investor Beat
The latest Retail Investor Beat was based on a survey of 11,000 retail investors across 13 countries and 3 continents. The following countries had 1,000 respondents: UK, US, Germany, France, Australia, Singapore, Italy and Spain. The following countries had 600 respondents: the Netherlands, Denmark, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic.
The survey was conducted from October 30 – 13 of November 2025, and carried out by research company Opinium. Retail investors were defined as self-directed or advised and had to hold at least one investment product, including shares, bonds, funds, investment ISAs or equivalent. They did not need to be eToro users.
The figures and results presented in this survey are based on the responses of participants at the time the survey was conducted. They reflect responders’ opinions, views and perceptions and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a guarantee of future performance. Percentages and results may not be representative of the broader population and are subject to change as market conditions and sentiment evolve.
