Biden proposes a way out of the Gaza disaster – and claims it’s Israel’s idea
President Biden’s framework for ending the catastrophic Gaza war appears to allow for leaving a much-degraded Hamas in place in Gaza, while all the hostages would be returned in exchange for an Israeli pullout. If Israel agrees, which is a big if, it would be a massive comedown from its original goal of crushing the terrorist group that carried out the Oct. 7 massacre.
At the same time, it would be predicated on a bedrock principle of zero tolerance going forward: Israel would expect to renew the war if Hamas violates the cease-fire, this time without the complication of the hostages, and also expecting the world community to grant it a legitimacy that in the present round has plainly been exhausted.
Biden’s brief speech — whose timing certainly suggested the tipping point discussed here last week — was remarkable in a variety of ways, and not only because he again described Israel’s war aims as “righteous.”
First, the plan was presented as an offer Israel made to Hamas on Thursday. If that is true, and Israel has not denied it, this is an odd way for an Israeli proposal to be announced, and it is not clear whether it was coordinated.
Moreover, Biden also seemed at pains to urge Israel to stick to its own supposed plan, which suggests he believes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may wobble, as extremists hold the keys to his coalition.
If true, this would mean that after almost eight months of fighting Israel has concluded that its twin declared aims – of eradicating Hamas fully and winning the release of the over hostages (now numbering over 120) – are not compatible, and that the latter must be prioritized since they are dying one by one in prison. The logic there is that military pressure does not deter those willing to die for their cause.
While Israel did not deny the Biden presentation outright, the Prime Minister’s office did issue statements repeating that Israel will not end the war without eradicating Hamas. While definitions and spin might help finesse this, many observers will be calculating which of the two leaders is the more likely to be lying.
Biden avoided specifics and employed some vague language about the connection between various aspects of what he was proposing. But he more than hinted that in the offing was the long-mooted “normalization” (meaning peace) deal with Saudi Arabia, and the concomitant US-backed Sunni-Israel-Western security alliance arrayed against Iran and its troublemaking militia proxies in the region.
It is conceivable that there may be elements of the plan that Biden did not mention – especially around the question of whether indeed Hamas can remain in charge of Gaza. If Israel simply pulled out now, that would certainly be the result, even though the group’s fighting force has been decimated (Israeli security sources say only four battalions – less than a fifth of the original fighting force – remain intact).
If this is what occurs, Israel can only blame itself – or more precisely, the Netanyahu government that emerged from the calamitous Nov. 2022 election. This outfit refused to contemplate setting its goal as the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza, even though this is the only alternative that is relevant in Palestinian public life.
The only plan aired by Israeli officials in recent months was a half-baked notion to rely on local clan leaders – and this quickly led to Hamas intimidation and assassinations and a speedy capitulation of all possible candidates promising Hamas they would never dare.
Nonetheless, it is not inconceivable that at the last minute Israel would agree to a plausible post-Hamas plan which might include a revamped PA, perhaps with personnel changes, and perhaps as a separate branch from the West Bank-based autonomy government in Ramallah. One possibility favored by many in Israel’s security establishment is to bring back Mohammed Dahlan, who was once the main PA enforcer in Gaza but who fell out with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and is now in exile in the Gulf.
Under such a scenario, Israel may be wise to offer the Hamas leadership (including the Gaza-based leader, Yihya Sinwar) exile, simply in order to prevent them from sabotaging a new leadership.
The incentives to Israel would also include an end to the eight months of attrition with the Hezbollah militia, whose shelling of northern Israel has depopulated towns near the border and caused tens of thousands to flee their homes.
Nonetheless, by Saturday night the extremists in Netanyahu’s coalition were already threatening to bring it down over the plan.
In the short term, all this could mean Netanyahu manages to delay the expected departure of the moderate party of Benny Gantz from the coalition. If Netanyahu does not walk away from the plan, despite the extremists’ threats, it is likely the group may remain for a while to see it through.
If the war indeed winds down, that could set in motion political moves to dissolve the Knesset and call new elections, perhaps by the end of the year. Normally, in a parliamentary system, after a breakdown as spectacular as Oct. 7, this would be a given. But Netanyahu is also a leader who seems willing to cling to his seat at basically any cost.
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