A Romanian historian’s analysis: the impossibility of Putin’s replacement

Armand Gosu is Associate Professor of Russian Politics, Political and Diplomatic History of Russian Empire and Soviet Union at the Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Bucharest. Formerly, Gosu was an Advisor to the Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Gosu mused on Monday that it is hard to imagine a scenario in which a change of power in Moscow could take place, in which Vladimir Putin would be replaced with democrats.

These statemens were made at the conference „A year of war. Russian invasion in Ukraine”, organized by the Civic Academy Foundation and Spandugino Foundation.

In his opinion, in the event that there will be a dissolution of the federation, wide parts of it risk to be either uncontrolled or controlled by various mafioso organizations.

„I would rather see a scenario in which local leaders – I mean Buriatia, or IaKutia – will try to modify Russia’s structure as a federation. The problem is that they will try to throw Russia into feudalism. Whole areas on the map may simply remain uncontrolled or controlled by various mafias. I have the experience of the 1990s in Russia when people voted the mafia because the Russian mafia of Yasenevo was better than mafias of the police and army, who were paid but did not keep their word”, he said.

The political analyst considered that in the case of Ukraine, the support offered by a system of political-military alliances could prove more efficient than the status of NATO member.

„Certainly, NATO remains important, but it seems that the Ramstein coalition seems to play the shaping role for world security – where there is Morocco, a state which sent 54 T72 tanks to Ukraine. Or Australia, which is very active. Australian war machines are extraordinary and very appreciated.The world is chaging, it has another dynamics. That is why I say that in case Ukraine does not join NATO, there could be another system, with guarantees from Canada, which is very active, Australia, Great Britain, Poland which are very active and the United States. These five value more than NATO. That is why a politico-military alliance system could be much more efficient in Ukraine’s case than its status of NATO member”, said Gosu.

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