A Trump vs. Harris primer

The US election is about two weeks away, but absentee balloting has already begun. The election will turn on turnout, but also on swing voters facing a bewildering array of issues—so I figure a cheat sheet might be helpful.

The first thing to understand is that little of what is said on the campaign trail should be believed. That goes double for Donald Trump, who simply lies more easily than most. There’s a case to be made for Trump, but it has nothing to do with what he says about Vice President Kamala Harris on the stump.

She’s not a communist, and there’s no plan (nor means) to flood America with immigrants on a fast-track to voting rights. The Democrats also don’t favor abortion after birth, which is indisputably murder. The latter was just a Trumpian senior moment, and it’s odd that anyone believes any of it.

What we do have, though, are a range of issues on which even a reasonable person might agree with one party on some and with the other on the rest; that is more true now than before because the world has grown more complex and because both sides have scrambled things with the culture wars which cut across old party boundaries, driven by economics or geopolitics.

This situation creates swing voters. Identifying them is complex, but studies show that the truly undecided—as opposed to those who claim it to appear non-partisan—are on the rise. Such voters, if rational, must assign to each variable a coefficient: if you want abortion rights, how much do you want them, versus your passion level on issues that break the other way. And they shouldn’t overthink: even if your preference on, say, gun control, seems hopeless, it won’t be if enough people prioritize it and vote the same way.

So, here’s my good-faith effort to survey the issues landscape:

The Classic Three: Gun Control, Abortion, and Healthcare

It’s fair enough to group them because people tend to go the same way on all three: tighter gun control (like restoring the assault weapons ban), basic abortion rights, and ensuring a baseline level of health care for all (which every other advanced economy on Earth has). All polls show most Americans want all three, which should make elections a Democratic slam dunk.

Yet somehow the Republicans are getting away with mulish obstinacy on these things, and especially health care has been hyper-complicated to the point that scrambles minds. Moreover, there is a subtle narrative that these are yesterday’s concerns. But they’re still important in real life.

The New Three: Immigration, Wokeness, and Jihadism.

These three issues have emerged to challenge the Classic Three, and while they are still likely to break the same way for most people, they do so to a lesser extent—and in the other direction.

• Immigration: Despite the Republicans’ bluster, most Democrats also want to control the Mexico border and minimize unauthorized crossings. But if there do exist some people who think policing the border is racism or that borders should not exist at all, they’re on the left. This is not the only reason there has been an upswing in illegal crossings under President Biden (for it is former President Donald Trump who scuttled a bipartisan border deal) — but it is undoubtedly one reason.
• Progressivism: This movement started with ideals of social justice and a fairer world that most liberals could embrace — but it became illiberal at its extreme and left the majority of voters way behind. Most Americans don’t want to “defund the police,” seek equality of opportunity not of outcome, are disinterested in gender-affirming therapy for prisoners and such, and don’t think all institutions are racist or that careers should easily be cancelled or that white people should just shut up now.
• Jihadism: The problem began with President Barack Obama refusing to call Islamic terrorism what it is a decade ago. Today it is evident in the apologist instinct some people in the West have toward organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, and forgiveness toward the theocracy in Iran — all three of which oppress their own people horribly. It is evident in Osama bin Laden’s TikTok fandom and in some Westerners joining the Islamic State. The far left seems confused on this issue, lost in reveries about oppressing the oppressor, who is always from the West — but most voters are not, and they know this movement is their enemy.

You could argue that these issues have been inflated as a gift for Trump by Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s poison bot machine. If so, it was a truly fabulous gift, working wonders to make the left look ridiculous.

Taxation and Inequality

This tough issue can break both ways. The US has a convoluted tax code, and most people want less bureaucracy, which goes against the Dems. The US also has the worst inequality in the developed world—not just because of great wealth but also real poverty—and most people want the newly stupendously wealthy to pay more taxes; this goes against the GOP, or should. But if Trump further lowers corporate taxes, it will boost stocks, which the middle class will love. Americans also have been brainwashed against social democracy, confusing it with communism. Legions of young people just want an economic future, which is increasingly elusive, and many get their advice on the matter from idiots on TikTok, so confusion reins. This issue should break in most cases for the Dems, but rather it is a wash.

Foreign policy

Trump will rattle NATO and America’s allies and suck up to Putin and other dictators because he admires them. He will probably force Ukraine to end the war with Russia in control of some of its territories. He may also selling out Taiwan, especially if Xi Jinping says something nice. Harris will do the opposite on all these fronts. On the Middle East both will support Israel but only Harris will pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and I doubt either will have the courage to go truly tough on Iran, which should be the main priority; Trump is more likely to call out evil miscreants for what they are, but he’s also an isolationist opposed to “forever wars.” I suspect Harris may actually be the tougher customer, yet the Dems are suspect of projecting weakness before radical Islam.

Unless you want to blow up the world order, hate NATO, and want to make Putin and other dictators very happy, this should probably break for the Democrats. But Trump’s argument that the world is now in flames and in 2020 it was not will probably make this also a wash.

The Candidates

If there’s one thing unites the democratic world, it’s people’s unhappiness with whoever are their candidates (which might make us examine our societies). The greatest success of the Trump campaign has been to make the campaign about the other guy — even though theirs is cartoonishly absurd on an Emperor Nero, Benito Mussolini, Imelda Marcos level.

The claim that Biden is no longer lucid seemed true enough to make that thrust hard to parry. With Biden gone, they’re now claiming that Harris is inadequate. Well, that’s not totally untrue either, as I’ve pointed out on these pages (see article here): She can seem odd and silly and strangely out of her depth, and is far from a great orator. But to focus on that is also ridiculous considering that she’s running against a man who was twice impeached, has been convicted of felonies, undeniably tried to overturn the 2020 election (and still claims with excruciating gaucheness to have won it), is in some way responsible for the deadly Jan. 6 Capitol invasion, and may not accept a loss this time around as well. He once suggested he would not assault a certain woman because she was insufficiently attractive, raves nonsense about Democrats banning cows, and says immigrants are eating people’s pets.

While this is not a comic situation, when I hear Trump I am struck by the idea of him as a modern mutation of the Latin American revolutionary leader who seizes power in Woody Allen’s comedy Bananas (and then decrees that underwear must henceforth be worn on the outside).

Electoral College

I’d like to say this exercise is important because every vote counts, but let’s face it: Votes in non-battleground states — meaning most — kinda don’t due to America’s uniquely twisted Electoral College system. People defend it saying it forces politicians to pay attention to smaller states — but all it really does is encourage politicians to only pay attention to swing states (which are generally larger!). It also means that the United States is the only country in the world where politicians have zero incentive to campaign in the three largest cities — except to woo financial titans. And it gives most rural voters several times the numerical impact of a Californian or New Yorker.

This racket radically favors the Republicans, which is why they might again win the presidency while losing the “popular vote” (also known as “the vote”). Changing it would require the Democrats controlling most states, such as to pass a constitutional amendment, which is tough. But if that’s what you want— as I do — then the Democrats are the choice.

The issues do matter, no matter what smart-alecks say. And the personalities matter, because bad people do bad things. You know what shouldn’t matter? Whether you are entertained. Go to the circus — or to Netflix — for that.

As for me, I break in all the ways I suggested the average swing voter should. If curious, add them up and you’ll figure out whose name is marked on my already-mailed absentee ballot for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania — a magical place where, because of totally random reasons, votes do count.