Two scenarios in ‘all their beauty’ hover over the Capital: in the best one, Bucharest would have a mayor from the Social Democratic Party; and in the particularly bad one, Bucharest will be led by a protegee of pro-Russian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu.
At least, this seems to be the trend that polls have begun to indicate, and the latest one, Atlasintel, published by Hotnews, suggests a strong consolidation of this direction.
Of course, all polls must be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism, because in the end the real test will be given at the ballot box.
However, as far as the electoral race for the position of mayor of Bucharest is concerned, a few remarks are self-evident, and some conclusions can already be drawn.
Among the remarks, there would be that the elections for Bucharest should be seen as representing more than a political battle limited to the future of a city.
Given the special circumstances of the winter of 2024 and the spring of 2025, the battle for the capital is now also a continuation of the one for Romania, fought between the pro-Russian forces (AUR/Georgescu/SOS/POT) and the more or less Western, more or less reformist forces (PNL/USR/PSD).
The pro-Russians are desperate for revenge, and the next opportunity is precisely the elections in Bucharest, on December 7.
And precisely because they are desperate for revenge, they sought to play according to the same scenario that had brought them massively closer to presidential success (Călin Georgescu-type populism) and bet on the candidate who could most easily reheat the electorate on this level: Anca Alexandrescu.
With a speech in the image and likeness of Georgescu, a media star already watched by many fellow citizens, as well as the most effective trumpet of Calin Georgescu, in the last year, Anca Alexandrescu has at this moment pretty much everything she needs: the support of AUR, the easy association with Georgescu’s image, a wide media coverage.
In addition, the rush for the seat of general mayor was further eased by the liberation of the corridor, by the recent withdrawal from the race of Alexandru Zidaru (Makaveli), whose small but essential electorate will naturally reorient itself (for the most part) towards Alexandrescu. You don’t need a doctorate in sociology and political science to understand this.
As the battle for first place seems to be more than close (according to all the polls so far) and as only the first place matters, because it is a one-round election, it is in the rooster’s mind that simply every vote will count.
Among the conclusions that can already be drawn is the one, in three steps, that:
- The PSD’s approach was adequate to the challenge, preparing its entry into the race without colliding with a competitor of the same color, thus eliminating the risk of segmentation of the vote for its candidate, Daniel Băluță.
- The approach of the pro-Russian pole has been definitively corrected along the way: although a “big” and a “small” candidate have officially entered the race, the risks of cannibalization of the vote have been annihilated at the last minute, by the withdrawal of the “small” candidate, from which the “big” one will benefit.
- And the bad approach belongs (again) to the most “lively” representatives of the idea of reform (as much as there is, on this side, the idea of reform) and of the clear pro-Western orientation (here, to their credit, there are no more doubts). At least three candidates are fighting on a very narrow corridor – Ciprian Ciucu, Cătălin Drulă, Ana Ciceală. Taken together, their percentages, reflected in the polls, could have given a common candidate indisputable chances of success. Moreover, a common candidate would have meant avoiding the percentage losses generated by the quarrel that inevitably settled between them (especially on the Ciucu-Drula axis), since they ran separately and therefore competed against each other. Of course, each of the three candidates and each party behind them has its own aspirations, calculations and egos to feed. It’s just that, going on three paths instead of one, the risk of ending up in the ditch became high from the start, and during the campaign it only continued to increase. Aces in the decryption of the micro image, the parties and candidates of the reformist-Western pole are (again) behind in accepting and decrypting the big picture.
Two weeks ago, I wrote that a “constructive” earthquake will be needed in the Ciucu-Drulă-Ciceală area in case there will be changes of strategy among the other two major segments – PSD or pro-Russian.
Most likely, it seemed to me at that time, such changes would appear in the pro-Russian area – the eventual withdrawal of Makaveli, which would blow wind in Alexandrescu’s sails. In which, as we pointed out further, it would be necessary to withdraw at least one of the three pro-Western – preferably the candidate with the lowest electoral traction among the two best placed – Cătălin Drulă (details in the link at the end). Ideally, two would be the withdrawal (the second and third, according to the ranking in the polls).
Meanwhile, what seemed likely actually happened – Makaveli withdrew his candidacy. And Alexandrescu capitalized on that.
If in USR and PNL, but also in Ana Ciceala’s SENS there really is someone capable of seeing and understanding the big picture, as well as the stakes related to it, in the next 24-48 hours they should put pressure (even by going public) so that the best placed player (in the polls and at the polls – is one and the same, Ciprian Ciucu) to become the sole candidate.
In case PNL and USR miss the Bucharest City Hall, after having had so many assets to conquer it (including the fact that the seat had previously been occupied by Nicușor Dan), the signal of powerlessness thus sent will be extremely harsh and will leave deep traces that will have implications far beyond the isolated battle for Bucharest.
Of course, the appeal to a minimum last-minute reason is also valid for the current president of the country, and this is also because he did not hesitate to
place himself at least a little bit as a player on the sidelines in this electoral competition, although at one point he seemed to distance himself from Cătălin Drulă.
At a time when extremists and pro-Russians are on the rise precisely because they unite at critical moments, the opposing camp tends to repeat mistakes with the potential for bankruptcy.
- PS: There were also hesitations to make sudden, courageous, albeit extremely politically difficult maneuvers at the November 2024 presidential elections. And we know how it ended. I wrote about it on November 21, 2024, practically at the last minute when the disaster could still have been avoided.
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