The cost of breakfast food staples has risen by 25% in two years with cocoa and orange juice driving the trend.
- eToro’s Breakfast Commodity Basket looks at market spot prices of morning staples
- Orange juice sees steepest price rise in breakfast basket, jumping 123% in two years
- Cocoa has also risen steeply, up 51% in last 12 months with heavy rain hitting supply
- 25% increase in price of breakfast commodities indicates some of these food items will stay stubbornly expensive for consumers
The cost of commodities that make up a typical breakfast has jumped 25% in the past two years, according to the latest Breakfast Commodity Basket from investing and trading platform eToro.
The rate of price growth indicates that many of these breakfast food items will stay stubbornly expensive in supermarkets for months to come, until the respective commodity prices ease.
The Breakfast Commodity Basket is based on current spot prices of nine typical breakfast inputs – wheat, sugar, cocoa, oats, pork, orange juice, coffee, milk and tea. Since July 2021, the average price has risen by 25%, with unpredictable weather and harvest shortfalls continuing to drive the upward trend.
Orange juice has seen the steepest price rise of any item in the breakfast basket, with its commodity price jumping 123% in two years, largely thanks to a continuation of disappointing orange harvests in Florida, one of the large global producers. Cocoa prices have also skyrocketed, rising 51% over the last year alone, with heavy rains hitting supply from the dominant producer, Ivory Coast, while the cost of tea is up 45% versus last year.
Certain commodity prices are easing though – with oats, milk, coffee and wheat and pork all cheaper than they were 12 months ago – largely thanks to the drop in energy prices and markets adjusting to the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine..
Ben Laidler, Global Market Analyst at eToro, said: “Compared to last year, our Breakfast Commodity Basket makes for less painful reading with five out of nine of the breakfast ingredients seeing price drops since July 2022.
“However, the soaring cost of cocoa, orange juice, sugar and tea means that many of our favorite breakfast staples will remain stubbornly expensive in supermarkets for many more months.”
When it comes to prices on supermarket shelves, sugar has led the way in the last year, up 54% in the last 12 months, according to the latest ONS data. This is followed by jam and eggs, both up 29% year-on-year.[1]
Table showing change in prices of commodities in the eToro Breakfast Commodity Basket
| Commodity | Commodity price change since July 2021 (2-Years) | Commodity price change since July 2022 (1-Year) | Commodity price change year to date (YTD) |
| Wheat | 5% | -8% | -10% |
| Sugar | 35% | 38% | 30% |
| Cocoa | 45% | 51% | 33% |
| Oats | -1% | -19% | 7% |
| Orange Juice | 123% | 100% | 50% |
| Milk | -8% | -32% | -14% |
| Coffee | -3% | -14% | 2% |
| Pork | -7% | -6% | 50% |
| Tea | 40% | 45% | -11% |
| Breakfast Commodity Basket | 25% | 15% | 14% |
*Spot prices taken in the third week of July for the previous two years. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
The data used in this press release was taken from Refinitiv on 25.07.2023. Spot commodity prices for Wheat (US$/Bu), Oats (US$/Bu), Raw Sugar (US$/lb), Cocoa (US$/MT), Orange Juice (GSCI spot OJ index), Milk (CME non-fat), Coffee composite (US$/lb), Tea (US$/kg), Pork bellies (US$/lb).
