Moldova’s parliamentary elections Sunday are seen as a key battleground between the EU and Russia as the small East European nation’s fate is seen as crucial to Europe’s future.
The country of just 2.5 million which lies between Ukraine and Romania is seen as part of a wider campaign of Russia to reassert influence across Eastern Europe and prevent its neighbors from formally aligning with the West.
It achieved that in another former Soviet state, Georgia, and was accused of of interfering in Romanian 2024 presidential elections, an EU and NATO member state, alleged meddling which ultimately failed. It denies interference.
Pro-Western Moldovan President Maia Sandu delivered a grim warning this week about Russia’s efforts to interfere in the election.
“The Kremlin is pouring hundreds of millions of euros to buy hundreds of thousands of votes on both banks of the Nistru river and abroad,” she said.
“People are intoxicated daily with lies. Hundreds of individuals are paid to provoke disorder, violence and spread fear.”
If Russia were to gain political control over Moldova, “the consequences will be immediate and dangerous for our country and for the entire region,” she said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned the election at a speech at the United Nations on Wednesday. “Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova” he said, saying supporting the country’s stability was “not costly, but failing to do so would come at a much higher price.”
Sandu’s pro-European Party of Solidarity (PAS) faces an uphill battle to retain its majority against a pro-Russian coalition, the Patriotic Electoral Bloc.
The outcome of Sunday’s vote could prove decisive for Moldova’s aspirations to join the EU, an ambition that gained momentum in the bloc after Russia’s invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Russia has some 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova. A Russia-friendly parliament in Chisinau would strengthen its hand and potentially provide another route into Ukraine. The Ukrainian strategic port Odesa is close to Moldova’s border.
With Moldova an ally, it could also help Russia expand the hybrid war across Europe as many Moldovans have Romanian citizenship, a EU member, meaning they can move and live freely across the bloc.
A referendum on joining the EU in 2024 resulted only a tiny majority to those in favor of joining the EU.
Moldova has been inundated with Russian propaganda in recent weeks, with false narratives claiming NATO troops will occupy Moldova and men will be obliged to fight against Russia.
Priests from the Moldovan Orthodox Church, which is aligned with the Moscow Patriarchate that blessed Russia’s war in Ukraine, are accused by Chisinau spreading a narrative among the believers that EU membership would undermine traditional family values.Moldovan media reported that several hundred priests traveled to Russia on “pilgrimages,” ahead of the church messaging.
