Global warming to hit global economy, but not this summer’s travel season

Sursa: Pexels

Wildfires in Greece and in the United States, temperatures above 50 degrees, violent storms, hail, are only a few effects of global warming visible today. Moreover, a recent study estimates that in the future the rise in global temperatures may cause a big dent to the global GDP and in the end, to your wallet.

However,  this year so far the extreme weather has not been deterring people from traveling. In Europe, tourism looks strong this summer despite the heat waves and storms that hit the continent, disrupting air travel at the beginning of the travel season,  eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.

Climate change caused by CO2 emissions already in the atmosphere may shrink global GDP in 2050 by about $38 trillion, or almost a fifth, no matter how aggressively humanity cuts carbon pollution, a new study finds. These damages are six times larger than the mitigation costs needed to limit global warming to two degrees. As a result, average income per capita will decline by 19% over the next 25 years, say the researchers from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Unfortunately, no country will be spared but „countries least responsible for climate change are predicted to suffer income loss that is 60 percent greater than the higher-income countries and 40 percent greater than higher-emission countries,”  PIK scientist Anders Levermann told AFP. Rich countries will not be spared either: Germany and the United States are forecast to see income shrivel by 11 percent by 2050, and France by 13 percent.

Tourism, which accounts for over 7% of the global GDP is projected to be affected as well. From popular destinations that are seeing a steep increase in summer temperatures to winter sport resorts that start to see a shorter season with less snow than before, tourists will rethink their vacations. A study of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission forecast that European tourism is projected to rise but the seasonality patterns that we are seeing now will change.

Northern European coastal regions are expected to see more than a 5% increase in demand during summer and early autumn months. Conversely, southern coastal regions are projected to lose nearly 10% of summer tourists compared to the present, particularly in warmer climate scenarios (3°C and 4°C). In these regions, the decline in summer demand is partially offset by higher tourist visits in spring, autumn, and winter.

In aggregate terms, the month of April is expected to see the highest increase in tourist flows reaching a +8.89% compared to the present in a 4°C scenario. The largest decline in European tourism demand is projected for July, ranging from -0.06% in the 1.5°C scenario to -5.72% under the warmest climate scenario.

But, despite an early start of scorching temperatures in Europe, the outlook for this summer looks strong. Tourists are planning their summer vacations and according to tour operators the demand is strong. TUI Group CEO Sebastian Ebel warned in May that there could be a shortage of places on tourists’ favorite holiday island – Majorca in the summer, but also in the popular Greek islands. Giant Booking.com estimates that with the warmer weather, over a third of travelers (36%) are looking to water-centric getaways as a quick fix. Also 75% of travelers declared to find instant relaxation by the water’s edge. This is making Mediterranean countries a popular destination this summer for Europeans, Romanians included.

 

UPDATE. Storks don’t migrate, bears won’t hibernate-the effects of global warming in Romania

 

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