Reportedly, India has already surpassed China and is home to the most number of people in the world. In a series of posts on Twitter, Yi Fuxian, researcher and author at the University of Wisconsin, claimed India’s population surpassed China’s population in 2014. Two other Chinese demographers who did not wish to be named said Yi’s argument is likely true.
“Births (in China) began to decline in 1991, with no peak in 2004 or 2011; Population is now less than 1.28 billion, not the official 1.41 billion; Population began to shrink in 2018, not 2031 as officially predicted”, Yi tweeted after the release of the UN report.
“India and China were alternately the most populous countries in the world until 1700. But from 1820-2013 China’s population was consistently larger than India’s. In 1882, China’s population was 381 million, India’s was 209 million, and the US’s was 9.98 million. In 2014, India’s population again surpassed China’s”, Yi told Hindustan Times.
According to Yi, that shift has already taken place.
“China is no longer the most populous country in the world, and India’s population has surpassed that of China. The world geopolitical and geo economic pattern is undergoing historic changes. However, due to economic inertia, it will take decades (>30 years) for India’s economy to surpass China and the United States”, he said.
Yi is the author of the 2007 book Big Country with an Empty Nest, which takes a critical look at China’s family planning policy. It was published in 2007 and banned on the mainland.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics said last year that the country’s population reached 1.4126 billion last year, after a 0.034% increase from 2020.
Officially, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) — the number of children every woman can have after reaching child-bearing age — was 1.3.
Population experts have said that countries require a TFR of 2.1 to maintain a stable population.
“India’s population is likely more than China’s because Chinese census statistics are not 100% accurate”, a Chinese demographer at a reputed university said on condition of anonymity.
Another demographer said Yi’s argument is “likely” true but indicated that more research needed to be done.
The first demographer quoted said one reason to believe Yi’s argument is that India’s fertility rate is higher than China’s. That’ one lesson Yi hopes India learns from China.
“I hope India learns the lessons of China and doesn’t fall into the low fertility trap,” he said.
India’s TFR has declined from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2.0 in 2019-21, the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) said in May this year.
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