The thrashing of Hezbollah helped put Lebanon back together again, beginning with the election of Joseph Aoun as president
Lebanon, a country long held captive by the stranglehold of the Hezbollah war machine-cum-mafia, has taken its first steps toward reclaiming its sovereignty and future. For over two years it lacked a president, mired in political paralysis orchestrated by Hezbollah, whose unchecked power silenced dissent and cowed its fellow Shiite ally Amal into betraying the country. But as of Jan. 9, Lebanon has a president — and much of the credit goes to Israel, which is technically in a state of war with its neighbor to the north. That’s the Middle East for you.
In recent months, Israel’s focused military campaign against Hezbollah dismantled much of Hezbollah, which had been the most powerful non-state army in the world. After enduring a year of relentless rocket attacks from Hezbollah (ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas, which is fighting Israel in Gaza), Israel launched an operation from September to November, targeting Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership with precision strikes.
While these actions caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, their impact was transformative. The cease-fire from late November was essentially a Hezbollah surrender, which is not something you see every day in this mulish era (and region).
The political breakthrough came when Amal (once Hezbollah’s rival for Shiite hearts and minds, and in latter times an ally) broke ranks. This pivotal shift allowed Lebanon’s parliament to elect Maronite Christian Joseph Aoun, the military commander, as president. He has vowed to ensure that the Lebanese state holds a monopoly on arms, a principle enshrined in United Nations Security Council resolutions and the Taif Agreement that ended Lebanon’s civil war, and the logic that says that only thus is a country not a joke. This commitment, if realized, could mark a sea change in a land that has long been a patchwork of armed factions and malign Iranian influence.
The numbers tell the story of this political shift. In the first round of voting, Aoun secured 71 votes, falling short of the 86 needed. But by the second round, he garnered 99 votes, thanks to Amal’s decision to abandon Hezbollah’s obstructionism. This strategic pivot reportedly came in exchange, it seems, for the finance ministry—a significant concession that underscores Amal’s recognition of Hezbollah’s waning influence.
“What happened in the region between Israel and Hezbollah was the first reason for why this election was possible, because Hezbollah had blocked the election of anybody who’s not an ally,” said foreign policy expert Walid Phares, a Lebanese-born Maronite who has advised Donald Trump (see below discussion on Israel’s I24. “This election is the result of a new balance of power that is the result of the Israel-Hezbollah war. There is no doubt about that.”
Hezbollah’s decline is not solely a result of Israel’s actions but also part of a broader geopolitical recalibration. First there is the weakening of Iran, Hezbollah’s primary benefactor, which saw Israel destroy much of its air defenses in an attack three months ago in retaliation for the largest ballistic missile attack in history a few weeks earlier). Then came the Dec. 8 collapse of the Iran-allied Bashar Assad regime in Damascus, which had allowed the country to be an Iranian base and a superhighway for arms shipments to Hezbollah.
But Israel’s decisive military intervention was the catalyst that tipped the scales. By targeting Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership, and assassinating the group’s iconic secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah in September, Israel not only defended its own borders but also disrupted the militia’s ability to dictate Lebanon’s political agenda.
In the long term, much remains to be done to fix Lebanon (here’s a look at its misbegotten origins). The country’s sectarian constitution, which divides political power along religious lines, is a relic of the past that perpetuates division and inefficiency. A new, inclusive constitution that prioritizes national identity over sectarian affiliations is essential for sustainable progress. Reforms in governance, transparency, and economic policy must follow, alongside rebuilding trust between the Lebanese people and their state institutions. It must start treating its Palestinian population (still defined as “refugees” as denied rights in the fourth and fifth generation) reasonable. It also needs peace with Israel.
But for now, baby steps. The election of Aoun represents an opportunity to reclaim its sovereignty and rebuild its economy. The country now stands a chance to unlock desperately needed financial aid from Gulf states, which had been withheld due to fears of funds being siphoned to Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran. With Hezbollah weakened and a reform-minded president at the helm, Lebanon can reorient itself toward the West and its Arab neighbors, shedding the shadow of Iranian influence.
It remains to be seen whether the Lebanese military really does take command of the country’s south (bordering Israel) instead of Hezbollah, as the US-brokered cease-fire agreement requires – much less dismantles the remaining military force of Hezbollah. Theoretically, if Iran is sufficiently weakened, one can imagine some fighters being absorbed into the Lebanese armed forces.
But even a good-faith effort in that direction would have been unimaginable a few months ago – and this must count as a late success for the foreign policy of Joe Biden and, yes, for the mostly odious Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu (which was the first to welcome Aoun’s elevation). Without its actions, Lebanon would likely still be mired in stagnation, its future dictated by an Iran-backed militia rather than its own elected leaders.
In the annals of Middle Eastern politics, the story of Lebanon’s resurgence will stand as a testament to the complex interplay of conflict and diplomacy, and to the sometimes decisive roles played by both the Goddess of Irony, the Crown Prince of Strange Bedfellows, and the unfathomably karmic axiom that what goes around comes around.
