‘Romania could have ‘1,200 to 1,600 daily coronavirus cases by mid-August,’ government analysis says

Romania’s government has calculated that daily figures could rise to 1,200-1,600 by the middle of August, G4Media said, citing a government document used to justify the extended state of alert.

The forecast was made by the Technical-Scientific National Committee for Emergency Situations. Romania on Thursday extended the state of alert for 30 days following a spike in cases.

”Taking into consideration the average daily confirmed for the coming period, and taking into account of the absence of legislation to apply measures to limit the spread of the infection….and particularly in the context of the summer season and crowding in tourist areas, we can expect for new cases to double in 12-14 days,” the document said.

Starting from mid-June, the reproduction rate of the virus has been higher than one. If this trend keeps on, we could have between 1,200-1,600 new daily cases by mid-August.

The document says that Romania reached a peak on April 29 when there were 8,200 active cases of Covid-19 followed by a slow decrease until June 2 when the number of cases began picking up.

The current spike began on June 16, more than two weeks after Romania reopened parks, outdoor restaurants and other facilities.

On June 14, there were 7, 856 active cases. The number of daily cases exceeded 600 cases on July 9, July 11, when 698 cases were reported, and July 14.

“In this context, the risk of infection remains high, with the numbers registered during the state of alert when freedom of movement wasn’t restricted.”

It said that from July 9-13, some 727 patients with coronavirus had voluntarily discharged themselves from hospital after a court ruling said they could not be kept in hospital against their will.

It identified virus hotspots as the capital Bucharest, and the counties of Prahova, Dambovița, Valcea, Brașov, which are popular with tourists in south and central Romania,  and the eastern counties of Galati and Braila.

Freedom of movement both nationally and internationally as well as a lack of compliance with regulations were responsible for outbreaks “as well as a lack of responsibility for protecting and individual and public health,” the document said.

It also noted how the number of patients needing intensive care treatment has increased since June 1. On Wednesday, 243 patients were in ICU.

The top two regions for coronavirus infections are Suceava, which had an outbreak in March and has 12.5% of registered cases, and Bucharest which has 11.6% of all cases.

The document said that after the Constitutional Court ruled on June 26 that quarantine could no longer be imposed as there was a legal void, the average number of daily cases increased from 333 to 487 a day.


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