Winter is getting close, it is colder outside and Romanians are starting to need heat in their homes. In Europe, the percentage of filling of gas reserves is one of the lowest in the past three years.
But the European natural gas prices are expected to experience only moderate upward pressure as 2025 concludes, driven by a complex mix of supply constraints, demand dynamics, and geopolitical uncertainties, eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.
European Union natural gas inventories stand at 82.3% capacity. Percentage-wise, Poland’s storage is full, Portugal’s is at over 99% capacity, Belgium is at 94% and Romania is next with over 93% of capacity filled. According to GIE-AGSI, Depomures is 100% full and Depogaz Ploiești is at close to 93%. The largest economies in Europe, France and Italy, are above 91% and Germany is at 76.6%. The lowest percentages are in Northern Europe with Denmark a bit below 48%, Latvia at 55% and the Netherlands at almost 70%.
European natural gas futures have been trading around €31- €33 per megawatt-hour, over 40% below February’s two-year high of €58, with volatility returning to pre-2022 crisis levels, as strong storage injections, though below previous three years, ease winter concerns. However, Europe faces tightening supply conditions heading into winter 2025/26. This storage deficit, combined with the complete halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine since January 2025, has created structural supply pressures.
LNG imports have surged 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching record levels of 75 bcm (billion cubic meters). But lower LNG demand in Asia, due to milder cooling needs, has freed up supplies for Europe, supporting the price drop. The elimination of Russian pipeline gas has removed approximately 6.5 bcm of supply compared to 2024, forcing greater reliance on more expensive LNG imports. Additionally, lower renewable energy output during winter months typically increases gas-fired power generation demand.
Several factors could drive prices higher through the year-end. Geopolitical tensions continue to create supply disruption risks, while competition from Asian LNG buyers could limit Europe’s access to flexible supply. But the weather can also play an important role. Winter weather patterns remain the primary uncertainty, with colder temperatures potentially increasing heating demand significantly.
So far, meteorologists are attentive to a transition from ENSO-neutral (where neither of the two climate patterns – El Niño and la Niña – is prevalent) to La Niña that might be likely to happen in the next couple of months. According to NOAA, there is a 71% chance of La Niña manifestations during October – December 2025, but chances decrease to 54% in December 2025 – February 2026. This means that in the northern part of Europe, the winter might be colder and wet, while in the southern part, warmer and dry. However, looking at GWIS long-term forecast for Europe, we can see a colder October than usual for Romania but then a warmer winter overall.
According to the International Energy Agency Q3 Gas Market Report, Global gas consumption is expected to reach a new all-time high in 2026, with demand growth accelerating to around 2%. Meanwhile, Global LNG supply is forecast to increase by a strong 7% (or 40 bcm), primarily driven by Canada, Qatar and the United States. Overall, analysts consider that European gas prices are positioned for a moderately higher trajectory through the end of 2025, with winter heating demand and supply tightness supporting the 35-40 EUR/MWh range, before potential easing in 2026 as additional global supply capacity emerges.
