The fundamental equation is that whereas the return of the hostages is worth almost anything to Israel, the death of large numbers of Gazans means almost nothing to Hamas.
In the drama unfolding in the Middle East since October 7, we have reached the stage of melodrama. Amid the piecemeal release of hostages, many of them infants, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, there is an understandable focus on the heartwarming reunions. But the story is far from over, and excruciating and critical choices await.
In the twisted calculus of the global jihadi movement, the grand success of October 7 was not just the massacre of 1,200 people nor the satanic documentation of scenes of barbarism such as the world has rarely seen. It was the seizing of almost 250 hostages.
The fundamental equation that is lost on some naïve outside observers is that whereas the return of the hostages is worth almost anything to Israel (as it is a democracy where public opinion matters), the death of large numbers of Gazans means almost nothing to Hamas (and if anything, it is useful).
It was clear that when Hamas wanted to end the war it would eventually begin to use the hostages to buy time, along the sliding scale of a rate card. We have seen the beginnings of it in the ceasefire that began on November 24, in which the “exchange rate” was roughly three “terrorists-light” (convicted of stabbings and not murders) per single civilian hostage, at a “supply” of roughly 10 per day.
The original four days were extended to six, even as negotiations continued to extend it to 10 or even beyond. Hamas has deployed the predictable psychological tricks of claiming hostages need to be searched for, that other groups need persuasion, splitting up families, and so on. Such is its mode.
Fighting may have resumed this weekend, but it remains likely that Hamas will quite soon want to nonetheless extend the truce further in order to slow the momentum of Israel’s operation and increase the chances that it can, somehow, remain in power, at least in the emerging new entity that could be known as southern Gaza.
In its brinksmanship, Hamas will also slow things down by raising the “cost” per hostage, especially the ones who can be claimed to be military (which includes both conscripted soldiers and those in the reserves, whose status as military is largely untrue). For them, Hamas will demand a far greater number of far more dangerous prisoners. They will include people like murderer Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of October 7, who was released in 2011 in exchange for over 1,000 genuine terrorists, which brought home Gilad Schalit.
For the public, the primary goal is returning our hostages
WILL ISRAEL continue the ceasefire when it must release dangerous killers or when it is getting only three hostages, or even one, per day? Public opinion will probably demand it.
That’s because public opinion in Israel was never with the government when it projected, in the first week of the offensive, that the primary goal was to eradicate Hamas. For the public, the primary goal is to return the hostages. Hamas can come next. Hamas is like cancer – possibly inevitable.
Do not be surprised if it turns out that, for the release of the last of the hostages, Hamas demands not only a total release of all the prisoners in Israel but a cessation of the fighting, leaving its armed force intact and in charge, at least in southern Gaza.
In global public opinion, much as Israelis like to (pretend to) ignore it, there is a more complex equation that includes two factors: Israel rather dubiously holds many Palestinian prisoners in administrative detention without charge, and Israel has genuinely oppressed the Palestinians for almost 60 years now, in the West Bank.
The settlement of the West Bank and the absurdities it creates, first and foremost the parallel legal systems, make a mockery of Israel’s supposed democracy. Act this way, and you will not be able to ascribe all criticism to antisemitism.
Yet here we are. Israel might have the option to declare victory and remain in charge in the north of Gaza, where it currently occupies Gaza City, the “capital.” It may be useful to install a version of the Palestinian authority there. Perhaps Palestinians will think again when they see the North flourishing under a true global rebuilding and development plan against the backdrop of the South, which is festering under a fundamentalist terrorist mafia.
But if Israel is serious about removing Hamas from the entirety of the Gaza Strip, it will face a real challenge. It may find it does not have carte blanche to do whatever is needed. That Hamas uses human shields is recognized, but that does not mean the killing of these human shields is acceptable. As an export-oriented economy, Israel cannot become a pariah.
An Israel that offers the Palestinians a genuine future, with demilitarized independence down the road, might win a little more rope. But that would require the defenestration of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his hard-right coalition.
Hamas hopes that after a month or so of quiet, with images of the Gaza devastation spreading around the world and memories of October 7 fading, Israel will be forced to lay down its arms. But if the war does resume, it will be a case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.
The irresistible force here should be Israel. It has a global top-15 military, a top-5 air force and nuclear weapons facility, and it is a global tech hub with a European-level economy and an alliance with the US. It also has wide global and even regional support in the position it has arrived at by rare domestic consensus: that Hamas must be crushed.
The world hates jihadism, too
THAT’S BECAUSE, while Israelis tend to moan that the world is against them, the reality is that the world largely hates jihadism (aside from progressive fools on US campuses). That goes double for Israel’s regional Sunni partners – enemies of the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot.
The immovable object may be Hamas, which enjoys a number of advantages.
Hamas operates as a murderous mafia that has killed, cowed, or chased away all the moderates. In the absence of opposition, it raised a generation who are incapable of critical thinking and indoctrinated to hate the Jews.
Israel’s blockade of the territory – a chokehold completed by Egypt in the south – has created a nihilistic siege mentality that blames others for all problems. The blockade exists because Hamas controls the area, but one needs critical thinking to appreciate this.
Moreover, Hamas does not need to worry about civilian casualties. There is some debate about whether its leaders fear for their own lives – the evidence cuts both ways – but they certainly care nothing for Gaza’s civilians. If anything, civilian deaths help Hamas further its martyr narrative, present itself as the victim, and create pressure on Israel.
Primarily, though, Hamas still holds many hostages. It can hold out, and dare Israel to attack it in the south, where there are two million people, including refugees from the north, half of whom are in tents and such. It is betting the world, and especially the US, will force Israel to hit the brakes, prioritize the hostages, and agree to a deal allowing Hamas to stay in power.
If that occurs – if Israel achieves the hostage return but not the eradication of Hamas – then the Jihadist group will claim a form of victory. And no matter how ruined the Gaza Strip will be, millions of angry and confused people around the region will believe it. Jihadism will be strengthened to the horror of all decent people in the world.
It is unclear which way it will go. Difficult choices lie ahead. It would be better if Israel had a credible leadership.
Dan Perry: Israel’s main objective is to secure release of Israeli hostages, end Hamas rule of Gaza
