Made up of timelines, maps, charts, and photographs, the classified US documents which have been leaked, some of them marked “top secret”, paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine.
They shed light on casualties suffered on both sides, the military vulnerabilities of each and, crucially, what their relative strengths are likely to be when Ukraine decides to launch its much-anticipated spring offensive.
They include detailed accounts of the training and equipment being provided to Ukraine as it puts together a dozen new brigades for an offensive that could begin within weeks.They state when the brigades will be ready and lists all the tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery pieces that are being provided by Ukraine’s Western allies. One map includes a “mud-frozen ground timeline”, assessing ground conditions across eastern Ukraine as spring progresses.
After a harsh winter that has worn down Ukraine’s air defences, there is also a sobering analysis of Kyiv’s diminishing air defence capability, as it seeks to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, critical infrastructure and its frontline troops, states the BBC.
Interestingly, story of how the documents found their way from the messaging platform Discord, to 4Chan and Telegram, has been told by Aric Toler of the investigative open source intelligence group Bellingcat. Toler says it has not yet been possible to uncover the original source of the leaks, but charts their appearance on a messaging platform popular with gamers in early March. On March 4, following an argument about the war in Ukraine on a Discord server frequented by players of the computer game Minecraft, one user wrote “here, have some leaked documents”, before posting 10 of them.
In 2019, ahead of the UK general election, documents relating to US-UK trade relations appeared on Reddit, 4Chan and other sites. At the time, Reddit said the unredacted documents had originated in Russia. In another case, last year, players of the online game War Thunder repeatedly posted sensitive military documents, apparently in an effort to win arguments among themselves.
Ukraine has zealously guarded its “operational security” and cannot be happy that such sensitive material has appeared at such a critical moment – for Ukraine’s spring offensive could represent a make-or-break moment for the Zelensky government to alter dynamics on the battlefield and set conditions for possible peace talks later.
In Kiev, officials have speculated a possible disinformation campaign by Russiather military bloggers have suggested the opposite: that it is all part of a Western plot to mislead Russian commanders.
Crucially, there is nothing in the documents leaked so far that points to the direction or thrust of Ukraine’s counter-offensive, and anyway it is safe to assume that Moscow intelligence has a fair idea of Ukrainian preparations – though, of course, not the whole picture.
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