Global surveys, which measure people’s perceptions regarding Donald Trump’s policies, the prospects of the US and the evolution of China, paint an increasingly gloomy picture for American power.
Things went downhill including in Ukraine, a country that America (Biden) informed in advance that it would be invaded by Russia and to which America (Biden) offered crucial support once the war started.
Biden’s America did not allow Ukraine to collapse in the initial days, weeks and months of the conflict; Biden’s America strongly (albeit imperfectly) built Ukrainian and Western resistance that quickly became effective enough to hold off Russia including on the Ukrainian front.
And Biden’s America was the driving force behind European support for Kyiv.
Washington’s momentum was particularly valuable, given the initial hesitations and fears in Europe’s EU and NATO capitals, rooted in the bad habit of forgetting that peace is not eternal, as well as decades of energy dependence on the Kremlin.
That America has not existed for a year now, because in the White House the president has a new geopolitical, something that not only confirmed, but also exceeded the darkest expectations regarding his presidency.
And Ukrainians, like dozens of other nations, immediately felt and deeply understood the dramatic change that had occurred, so today’s polls are predictable: too few Ukrainians believe in the pragmatism and the word of the US because so many Ukrainians have understood the current US president’s nature.
The ‘Great America’ promised by Trump, is increasingly perceived as both a bad joke and an existential danger all around the world. And domestically, ‘Great America’ has claimed a growing number of innocent victims, especially among the most disadvantaged, though other groups are not much better either.
Of course, in itself, the erosion in the polls of the global perception of Trump and the America envisioned by him is not enough to instantly discourage his plans and thwart his actions. But it is a necessary development.
This first step will undoubtedly be followed by others, on many levels. It is, in the end, an organic and organized evolution: first awareness, then mobilization and finally concerted action.
In just one year, awareness has reached a critical mass. In the last month Trump himself has created the conditions for accelerating mobilization. Venezuela and especially Greenland have created a foundation for the anti-Trump wall, a wall already under construction for over six months once it had become obvious, in many capitals, what kind of peace the American leader is negotiating with the Russian dictator, for Ukraine_ with vital implications for Europe.
Although they didn’t want to, and did almost everything to avoid a head-on collision, European countries are now a stone’s throw away from an encounter with the inevitable.
The new global mood which I referred to at the beginning, reflected in extensive surveys, is the key to everything that is about to follow.
Why? Because it is precisely this state of mind that is the fuel that can bring a dramatic change of position and posture from political leaders, heads of state and government in Europe.
International public opinion on Trump and his America will give them legitimacy and ensure them relative stability on the new path of open relations with Washington. Moreover, the mood that Trump has created all over the world will dictate that even European leaders have to embrace this once unimaginable path.
Let’s have a little patience, even if things accelerate, because we will certainly witness radical approaches, but appropriate to the context.
Europe has what it takes and has with whom to constrain a puffed up Trumpist America, but one which is rapidly losing touch with reality and has a deep misunderstanding of its vulnerability to China, a vulnerability that fractured US-Europe relations will only aggravate even more.
Above all, Europe has the motivation to risk an approach to coerce Trumpist America, because what is at stake for the old continent is precisely its viability and relevance on the political, economic and military map of the world.
The Europeans have, admittedly, the disadvantage of not being a homogeneous bloc like China, Russia or America. Europe means many nations, many histories, a physically fragmented territory (but, fortunately, currently also a relatively unified political and economic one). As such, Europe means a sum of differences and at the same time a construction that is always renewing itself.
But at the same time, it is also true that it is the crises that have helped Europe to go farther, to confront its demons in a constructive way.
Donald Trump has produced a massive crisis, and has given Europea common enemy, helping Europeans join forces.
Europeans have often been the world’s best in terms of their inability to recognize the assets they have. In doing so, they have tricked others – Trump and Putin, for example – in making them believe that Europe is merely a mass of weak compounds and an amalgam of weaknesses.
Putin has burned himself in the last four years, and Trump is about to burn himself in the coming months and years.
Last but not least, as someone who doesn’t know history (either generally or even less in detail), today’s US president misses something essential: today’s grass-eating Europeans have not always been herbivores.
Long before America was born, for centuries Europeans had been the carnivores of the world. They conquered, colonized, exploited and drew the map of the world as they wished.
Modern America itself has its origins in the vital support of some Europeans (the French) who were, of course, in competition with other Europeans (the British), because at that time the only real competition was between Europeans.
Europeans built empires, then lost empires, and in the last 60 years they no longer wanted to build empires. They got along nicely and that was good for everyone, both for the former colonizers (in full) and for the former colonized (unfortunately, not for all of them yet).
The idea which Trump should ponder, although his historical lapses may prevent this, is that decades of Europeans being herbivores cannot erase the memory of centuries of when they were carnivores.
Trump’s problem is that his by his foreign policy philosophy and ignorance of history (unprecedented at such a level), he arouses and awakens (European) demons who were clinically dead.
It’s a resuscitation process that Trump isn’t aware of which is why he won’t be able to control it.
For modern Europe, especially for the Western part, 2022 was the year of the final break with imperial Russia. It wasn’t easy, and for a long time Europeans hadn’t wanted it, but they were able to do it when the time came.
For modern Europe, 2025-2026 is a similar, albeit much nuanced, process in relation to imperialist America (what kind of America will be in three or four years, that remains to be seen, and given the background of its relationship with Europe, in the last century, probably, depending on the evolution of America, will decide how Europeans respond).
But one thing is certain: those who are betting all their cards on the sole scenario of Europe going under could have a lot to lose.
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