I was pleased to open the “Economic Trends in 2025” conference, hosted again this year by the National Bank of Romania, where we outlined the main macroeconomic risks and challenges for Romania, with the added threat of fresh tariffs at a global level which could brutally reconfigure global trade chains amid protectionist measures.
In this uncertain and complicated landscape, Romania’s economic decisions must ensure both the restoration of the sustainability of public finances and macro balances, as well as the support of economic competitiveness, especially in the industrial sector, which has slowed down in recent years.
Here is my speech:
“Dear representatives of the Romanian Government and Parliament,
Distinguished Madam Governor of the National Bank of Moldova,
Dear representatives of the regulatory authorities,
Honored representatives of the business environment,
Ladies and gentlemen,
I am glad to be with you today, at the opening of the Economic Trends conference, hosted by the National Bank of Romania, and I congratulate the organizers for this initiative.
In a world that is constantly moving between progress and crisis, between stability and uncertainty, it is particularly important that the dialogue between professionals, especially on economic issues, remains open, engaged and constructive.
And because March has not yet ended, and today’s conference is the initiative of female entrepreneurship within PEFA, it is a great pleasure for me to wish Happy Birthday! to the ladies in the room, those who, through inspiration and consistency, not only support the economy, but also give it direction, rhythm and elegance.
Dear guests,
Today’s conference is not just an event where the figures align in a logical or methodological sequence, and the necessary technical terms – in fact, dominate the discussions. I believe that it is, above all, a space for reflection and for strengthening the connection with a constantly changing economic reality.
As for the macroeconomic reality, we all feel that we are going through a period full of challenges, but also opportunities. After overlapping crises globally and regionally – pandemic, inflation, war, energy crisis – I believe that we have entered a stage of controlled adjustments, although not in their entirety.
We can observe, for example, a global trend of inflation correction, and Romania is no exception. The forecasts of the National Bank of Romania indicate a decrease in the inflation rate to 3.8% by the end of 2025, but also a high number of uncertainty factors, which tilt the balance of current risks upwards.
In 2024, economic growth was only 0.9%, below expectations, At the same time, the budget deficit exceeded 8.6% of GDP and remains one of Romania’s most pressing economic problems or even the biggest economic policy challenge.
In tandem, the current account deficit increased by almost 2 percentage points of GDP, which indicates public policies that are at odds with macroeconomic sustainability criteria.
The good news, including for us at the National Bank, is that we are no longer at the point where we are just talking about the imperative of reforms, because the first steps were already taken at the beginning of this year. The recently adopted fiscal-budgetary measures and the announcement of administrative reform priorities which will streamline budgetary expenditures, express the commitment of decision-makers to restore the sustainability of public finances and economic balances.
Honored guests,
In relation to the business environment, we are at a time when technology is profoundly rewriting the rules of the game, and global chains are brutally reconfiguring themselves amid aggressively protectionist trade measures. That is why it is essential for the Romanian business environment to affirm its openness to adapting to new challenges. According to the Innovation Scoreboard 2024, Romania falls into the class of “modest innovators”, unfortunately taking the last place of European Union members.
In this regard, on the one hand, digitalization offers huge opportunities, such as process automation, access to new markets, increased efficiency, and these advantages will translate into increased productivity and, thus, potential GDP.
On the other hand, there are still challenges that the business environment cannot ignore: access to finance, legislative stability, volatility of foreign markets and tariff shocks.
According to recent studies, in 2024 the number of insolvencies increased, especially in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Therefore, it is obvious that companies that w know how to manage risks will be better equipped to cope with increased difficulties. We have positive examples in this regard – Romanian entrepreneurs who innovate, Romanian companies who create sustainable business models or who expand their businesses abroad.
With regard to the energy sector, I would also say that we are at a turning point. In recent years, in the context of already constraining geopolitical turbulence, Romania has tested its resilience, providing energy resources for the Republic of Moldova as well, support that will continue to work.
Currently, perhaps more than ever, Romania has all the assets of a regional player in the field of energy security. Through the balanced energy mix and the large-scale projects under implementation, we already have considerable competitive advantages. As we speak, drilling has started in the Black Sea, for the exploitation of natural gas from the Neptun perimeter. This project has the potential to decisively strengthen the national energy balance in the coming years.
We have a complex path ahead of us, marked by the challenge of managing to maintain the balance between the green objectives – related to the energy transition, and the energy and economic security objectives, those aimed at protecting vulnerable consumers and ensuring industrial competitiveness.
At the same time, the macroeconomic picture remains dominated, this year as well, by multiple risks and uncertainties, both internal and external. They call for both prudence in public policies and sustained efforts to benefit from development opportunities, such as those offered by European funds.
From the central bank’s perspective, one of the carefully monitored developments, given the significant influence on economic forecasts and monetary policy conduct, is the attraction and use of European funds, on time and in full.
European funds are, in the current context, the main source of financing major investments in the economy. At the moment, any further delay will mitigate the anticipated positive impact, which is why we need a sustained national effort in absorbing European funds.
Ladies and gentlemen,
All these are key topics which will be discussed and deepened in the conference panels during your debates.
I am convinced that today’s discussions will be not only a source of ideas and solutions, but also a necessary exercise in economic realism – because, as much as we would like miraculous recipes, economics does not function as a novel with a happy ending, but rather as an open volume, in which every decision writes the next page. And the decisions that will be taken in this particularly complex period will foreshadow a new chapter in the evolution of the Romanian economy. A chapter that must generate for Romania economic competitiveness and financial sustainability.
Thank you and I wish you a fruitful conference!”
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