- Cocoa prices down 51% this year after record highs, while chocolate producers rise 14% as margins recover
- Five-year data show cocoa’s boom weighed on confectionery shares, now poised for rebound as cocoa prices ease
- eToro analysis highlights scope for a seasonal recovery across chocolate stocks
Just in time for Halloween, chocolate makers are catching a break. After years of record input costs, cocoa prices have tumbled 51% this year, according to new analysis from trading and investing platform eToro. The relief has helped the ‘confectionery basket’ of Lindt, Hershey, Mondelez and Nestlé climb 14% year to date, its best run since 2021.
The data reveals a more complex story beneath the surface. Over one year, confectionery stocks are up 2%, showing how last year’s record-high cocoa costs still tempered results. Over three years, performance is broadly flat (2%), but over five years, the basket has managed a 18% gain, a sign of how effectively chocolate makers defended margins during one of the most volatile commodity cycles in decades. An example of chocolate’s price resilience can be seen in the UK with data from Which? showing chocolate has seen a 14.6% jump in price throughout 2025 to August1.
That stability looks even more striking when set against cocoa’s surge of 153% since 2020, fuelled by repeated harvest failures and export bottlenecks in West Africa. The fact that chocolate equities have largely held their ground through such turbulence, highlights both the sector’s resilience and consumers’ willingness to keep buying, even as prices rose sharply.
Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro, said: “Chocolate makers are finally getting some breathing space as cocoa prices fall. Even after years of extreme cost pressure, the sector held up far better than expected. The data show that people may cut back on big luxuries, but they rarely give up small ones – and that’s helped keep chocolate stocks remarkably stable.”
Lindt remains the stand-out performer, up 30% this year, 22% over one year, 35% over three years, and 57% over five years. Hershey has gained 10% year to date, 0% over one year, and 27% over five years, while Mondelez (+5% YTD; +10% five-year) and Nestlé (+12% YTD; –22% five-year) have seen more turbulent results.
Sam North added: “This is an industry that’s proved remarkably resilient. Even when cocoa prices doubled, shoppers kept buying, they just adapted. Now the question is whether that resilience holds if sales volumes stay soft through Halloween and into the holidays.”
Table showing performance comparison: Confectionery vs cocoa
| Table showing performance comparison: Confectionery vs cocoa | ||||
| Brand/index | YTD | Returns 1 year | Returns 3 years | Returns 5 years |
| Mondelez | 5% | -12% | 10% | 10% |
| Hershey | 10% | 0% | -18% | 27% |
| Nestle | 12% | -2% | -20% | -22% |
| Lindt | 30% | 22% | 35% | 57% |
| Confectionary basket | 14% | 2% | 2% | 18% |
| Cocoa 2 | -51% | -24% | 153% | 153% |
Share price data taken at market close 21/10/2025. Index and commodity performance calculated in USD terms. Data from Refinitiv and Business Insider. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
