1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) – indicator for determining inflation at national level, reports ACTMedia
– Consumer prices were up 0.9% in July 2022 from June 2022.
– The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (July 2022 compared to December 2021) is 11.0%.
– The annual inflation rate in July 2022 compared to July 2021 is 15.0%.
– The average rate of change in consumer prices over the last 12 months (August 2021-July 2022) as compared to the previous 12 months (August 2020-July 2021) is 10.1%.
2. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) – indicator for determining inflation across the EU
-The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices in July 2022 compared to June 2022 is 100.46%.
– The HICP-based annual inflation rate in July 2022 compared to July 2021 is 13.0%.
– The HICP-based average rate of change in consumer prices over the last 12 months (August 2021-July 2022) as compared to the previous 12 months (August 2020-July 2021) is 8.7%.
Gas prices were the most to go up in the last year, given that tariffs were higher by 70.10% in July of this year, as opposed to July 2021, according to the data published by the National Institute of Statistics on Thursday.
In the top of non-food items that registered the highest price increases were also fuel, with a price hike of 35.63% in July 2022, as opposed to July 2021, as well as heating (22.98%).
Food items that went up most in price were cooking oil, with price hikes of 51.86%, potatoes – 41.85% and flour – 32.86%.
In the services sector, air transportation went up most in price – 34.02%, water, sewage – 20.96%, Romanian Railways (CFR) – 20.92%. Phone services have gone down by 0.08%, being the only price reduction in the month of July of this year, as opposed to July 2021.
June had the most important price hikes registered in Romanian Railways – 20.92%, gas by 8.16% and air transport services – 6.29%.
Last month there were food items that received a price reduction, such as potatoes, with 12.32%, beans and other vegetables (0.77%), maize flour by 0.04%. Furthermore, INS data shows that fuel tariffs were smaller by 2.04%, as well as phone services, by 0.13%.
The year-on-year inflation rate hit 14.96% in July, just off a 19-year high and above a forecast of 14.4% in a Reuters poll. It came down from 15.05% in June but analysts say there is still a chance it could creep slightly higher in the next two months.
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has increased to 13.9% its inflation forecast for the end of this year and estimates an inflation of 7.5% for the end of next year, according to data presented on Tuesday by the Governor of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Isarescu.
In May 2022, the BNR estimated an inflation rate of 12.5% for the end of this year and 6.7% for 2023.
According to the central bank, the annual CPI inflation rate is capped during the third quarter, and from the fourth quarter it is on a downward trajectory, under the assumption of gradual de-escalation of the wholesale energy markets and those of the agri-food products, as well as of the gradual dissipation of the syncopes in the global chains of the added value, but also as a result of some basic effects, after the strongly upward corrections of the energy price in 2021, before the implementation of the support schemes of household consumers.
According to the presentation, the BNR expects a temporary interruption of the disinflationary trend in the second quarter of 2023, once the measures to cap the prices of electricity and natural gas come out of force.
At the forecast horizon, June 2024, the projected level is 2.3%, within the inflation range, amid the manifestation of a substantial basic effect.