The Kremlin will continue its efforts to sabotage Moldova’s EU accession and destabilize Moldovan democracy and in the coming decade, even if voters choose a pro-Western path in elections this weekend, the Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis.
The fate of the small former Soviet republic hinges on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, the publication said in its assessment published on Wednesday.
It noted that while support for EU membership is growing in Moldova, the Kremlin is unlikely to cease its influence operations. It may instead increase its efforts to reverse pro-EU trends in the coming decade, the publication said.
Moldova holds presidential elections on Oct. 20 where Maia Sandu is expected to win a second term. It also holds e referendum on whether European Union membership should be
“Moldova stands to advance its path towards European integration in the upcoming October 2024 presidential election and referendum, but …will likely remain a battleground state into the 2030s as Moldova’s European Union (EU) membership negotiations continue,” it reported.
It warned: “the possible reelection of pro-Western Sandu and passing of the pro-EU referendum in October 2024 will not set Moldova’s EU path in stone. “
“The Kremlin is likely prepared to pursue several lines of effort in the future to derail Moldova’s EU path, such as attempting to influence and capture Moldovan state institutions; exploiting the Kremlin’s military, economic, and political ties to the pro-Russian Moldovan regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia.”
Currently, the “threat of a Russian invasion of Moldova through Ukraine is …extremely low, but the current conditions may change in the future, allowing Russia to invade and occupy more of Moldova than what it currently does in Transnistria.”
“Moldova’s future as an independent and sovereign state is directly tied to the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine and affects NATO’s planning for the defense of its eastern flank. estern aid to both Ukraine and Moldova is vital to these states’ abilities to resist Russian malign influence and aggression and keep Russian forces from threatening NATO.”
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