Russia is rearming fast enough to be a “real threat” to Europe within five years, says General Thierry Burkhard. He thinks it will replenish its forces by 2030.
France is very worried: in its National Strategic Review for this year, it named Russia as its most direct threat.
Meanwhile, Germany has declared that it is expanding its network of bunkers, estimating a possible attack at 2029.
But Polish PM has declared that he anticipates a freeze or pause in the war – despite the fact that Tusk reported that NATO’s Europe commander, General Alexus Grynkewich, believes that “Russia will be ready to confront Europe as early as 2027”.
It feels alarming that Western European countries seem to be in agreement about Russia being a threat in the not-too-distant future.
Others have pointed out that Russia might also move its interests towards the Baltic states, where it could better push NATO’s buttons. The Baltics are rather vulnerable, flat and sea-linked. Moldova, as a small country with an extensive history of Soviet occupation, might find itself in Russia’s radar, and constantly toes that line.
But “freeze” doesn’t seem like a wrong word — in the past four years, Ukraine has received enough weaponry to prevent its annihilation by Russia, but sheer size won’t allow Russia to be defeated anytime soon, it appears.
The Trump administration has long gone silent on ceasefire negotiations.
“Attack”, meanwhile, doesn’t necessarily mean violent, full-scale escalation into bombing: hacking, digital transgression, and sabotage are already taking place, moves designed to weaken systems from within. Western Europe, facing inflation and tariffs, is not the strongest it has ever been right now. Energy and water systems are under question, while industry is weak. Moreover, Russia is currently lacking in manpower (hence having to bring in soldiers from Korea), but has — much like Ukraine — significantly improved its drone production since the invasion began four years ago.
In any case, prepare for increased military spending. We’ve already seen it.
Russia’s Gazprom denounces Moldova move to switch gas supply system
