After more than a month and a half of political crisis, its architects and executors are preparing the next step.
- President Nicușor Dan did not escape what he had feared: he will have a formidable competitor, in the future presidential race, Ilie Bolojan. This is thanks to the outcome of the National Liberal Party extraordinary, something that was ironically, made possible by the series of political phenomena triggered by Nicușor Dan’s before and after the vote of no confidence. However, as there is still enough time until the next presidential election in 2030, other figures could emerge and Nicușor Dan could actually end up worrying about even qualifying for the runoff.
- Isolated nationally like Putin is internationally, the PSD has finally decided to enter government – but through the back not the front one door and through its “pawn” Adrian Veștea. It is dependent on votes that must be collected from extremist parties in Parliament, including AUR. There is a problem, because AUR leaders, such as Dan Dungaciu and Petrișor Peiu, have categorically stated that AUR will not vote for the Veștea cabinet. It should be noted, however, that, AUR president, George Simion, had avoided a clear public position so far. If Dungaciu and Peiu really knew what they were talking about, it will soon be clear. And if they did, it means that Sorin Grindeanu constantly poured nonsense about the PSD’s chances of taking over the government with Veștea in the front seat.
- AUR has massive chances of getting PSD votes and has for some time. Basically, all that is left for the party of Simion-Dungaciu-Peiu is not to make foolish mistakes and vote for a PSD government despite the aversion of the AUR electorate towards the PSD. The way President Nicușor Dan managed the political crisis gave satisfaction to the AUR who want early elections. Basically, the prolonged crisis, and the “exotic” picks the head of state made for prime minister, managed to bring closer the specter of early elections. Snap elections are one of AIR’s objectives and are an opportunity for AUR to turn poll numbers into Parliament seats. .
After six weeks of political crisis, the victims – the Liberals and the USR are finally reaping fruits.
PNL is reaping fruits thanks to the chance to turn the crisis into a rare opportunity to clear the waters in terms of its relationship with PSD, but also to clean up its own ranks, at least the upper echelons (there is still work to be done, of course, but what PNL-Bolojan has achieved now is no small thing).
USR reaps fruits by the fact that it is no longer as isolated on the political scene as it had been until now. The USR now has in PNL an infinitely more sincere and compatible partner, as seen by the signals given at Sunday’s Extraordinary Congress.
In case he has any self-preservation instinct left, President Nicușor Dan would be expected to make a new move, but this time in the right direction.
Such a move would mean returning to the healthy red line regarding the extremist support for any future government (something the head of state has practically abdicated from in recent days), respectively resuming consultations with the parties, initially asking the PSD to form a government and if the PSD wasn’t able, giving this mission to the PNL-USR binomial.
Now, once the long-awaited coup in the PNL has failed twice, President Nicușor Dan should distance himself from the investiture of the Veștea Government.
Because if this experiment succeeds (although the head of state had promised that he would not do experiments), the Veștea Government would be an ongoing disaster for the politician Nicușor Dan.
A Veștea Government will not get the votes it needs without the support of the extremists, which will practically normalize their discourse and objectives.
A Veștea Government based on such a fragile and motley majority will quickly find itself without a majority when it has to carry out reforms that are vital for the absorption of European money and for further reducing the budget deficit.
Finally, a Veștea Government can’t be excluded from injecting new doses of chaos into the general political dynamics, with the potential to even push for the suspension of the president. Nicușor Dan is not Traian Basescu who was impeached twice but he can’t even hope to be Klaus Iohannis anymore.
Only one thing should be clear to Nicușor Dan: in order to slow down his decline in popularity, he will have to accelerate the fall of Sorin Grindeanu. He really doesn’t have any more cards to play.
PHOTOS | Hundreds of Romanians protest as political crisis deepens
