Pro-European Bucharest mayor has overtaken nationalist George Simion in the presidential runoff, according to an analysis carried out by sociologist Mircea Comșa based on the most recent polls available.
The analysis, which integrates data from multiple sources – including estimates presented informally by well-known sociologists or results disseminated on social media – paints a dynamic and changing picture of electoral preferences.
At the center of this landscape is an essential detail: George Simion’s advantage after the first round where he won 41% has gradually been eroded.
After the first round, Simion had a lead of as much as 12-14 points, sociologist Mihai” Comșa said on Friday. But this distance seems not only canceled, but also reversed in some statistical models. According to the most recent data analyzed – including some from surveys conducted by IRES, Inscop or Sociopol – the difference between candidates is now within the margin of error, with a slight upward trend in favor of Nicușor Dan.
It is important to note that the analysis is based on a Bayesian model (which combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from
fundamentals-based forecasting models) that takes into account both the methods of data collection (telephone vs. online) and the way in which the undecided or incomplete answers were treated. In the last two weeks, the trend is clear: the electorate seems to be realigned, and Nicușor Dan is gaining ground, especially among those recently mobilized in the campaign.
Cosma notes that not all surveys used in the analysis have been published in full, some being only briefly presented on social networks in the form of graphs or punctual estimates. However, the data points to the same trend.
It remains to be seen whether this advance will also translate into a clear victory on the day of the vote. A major unknown is the vote from the diaspora, which can tip the balance, especially if the difference between the two candidates in Romania is small.
However, available data indicate one thing clearly: Nicușor Dan seems to have entered an upward trend that could change the calculations so far.
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