And he should do it on July 15 and steamroll the Republican convention
I’m going to make a prediction: Joe Biden will pull out of the US presidential race.
Predictions are generally foolish, and I make one here not because I have particular knowledge about his intentions or information on the feverish consultations underway. Nor do I think logic tends to prevail. I’m predicting a Biden pullout for a reason that may strike some as even dumber: My assessment that he’s a decent person.
A decent person might still be an egomaniac – and that Biden probably is, considering that he got into the Senate at an unnaturally early age and has been there so damn long. But you can be both. Many and probably most politicians, however, are only egomaniacs.
Part of being a decent person is caring about others, and perhaps the society in which one lives. In an extreme, unlikely and very welcome scenario you care about all of humanity too, at least a little.
There is a strong argument that says that anybody who cares about America (and about humanity) must not risk Donald Trump being returned to the White House. Even if you do not think that’s true, there’s little doubt that Biden does. And therefore, in the end he won’t risk it.
Here’s why Biden running constitutes precisely such a risk.
There’s never knowing what’s going to happen in a national US election – especially since the Electoral College racket gives the conservative right something like a 5% handicap due to the over-representation of rural states.
It seemed for a while like the Democrats should have a natural advantage on the issues, since the Republicans are wedded to positions opposed by most voters: Republicans insist on almost no gun control, no universal healthcare, few if any rights to have an abortion, and tax schemes that guarantee unhealthy levels of inequality. But then came the woke movement and Democratic confusion on illegal immigration and basically wiped out their advantage and balanced out the score (certainly with the aforementioned Electoral College lunacy factored in).
When the issues are a wash, you’re left with personality, character, narratives and other such fuzzy things, which often come wrapped in packs of lies.
The narrative Biden has been trying to sell is that if you compare the two candidates, you have an odious and lying miscreant versus a regular guy named Uncle Joe. That should certainly be Advantage Biden — and it was in 2020.
But his hiding from the press, his increasingly visible miscues, and the sad situation revealed on the debate stage last Thursday have rebalanced that equation: We now have, in a plausible view of things, an odious and lying miscreant versus an increasingly enfeebled (if not outright senile) guy. Biden’s former clear advantage is now very far from clear.
I certainly don’t prefer the odious and lying miscreant, but many might, and I cannot really blame them. That’s because this touches on something essential about the human condition: our distinction as a species is not defined by good or evil (as we are not provably better than other creatures) but rather by higher mental capacity. Even the dimmest among us therefore respect it most.
Sure, some will still attach more importance to Trump’s largely undoubted horribleness than Biden’s suspected mental deterioration. But a great many won’t. They’ll go for the felon who (they’ll tell themselves) knows what day it is.
This column is not the place to detail why Trump is such a menace to the Republic – I did that many times, and again just three days ago. All you need to accept is that Biden still have the mental capacity to agree with that view – and that he knows he is making a reckless gamble. And even if he somehow does not know it, the New York Times and other media and increasing voices in the Democratic Party are helping make it very clear.
He’s still rejecting these calls, it seems. And it must hurt Biden to think he can’t hide the ravages of age well enough for long enough (the way any of us over 40 have to do, to a degree). But he seems to still able to notice it is true. And he surely knows it is a big risk.
Here’s what Biden should do: Pull out of the race on July 15, the day of the start of the Republican National Convention, which will be a festival of toadies coronating an emperor with no clothes. Take all the wind out of those ragged sails by casting all attention on a one-month drama determining the next generation of leadership to oppose the MAGA right. The plausible candidates are many (as detailed on Sunday) and the bench is rather deep. If the Democrats are smart, they’ll court moderate Republicans too.
That’s what a smart person would do, because it reboots a race that is assuredly not going well. But more importantly, and perhaps more persuasively, that’s what a decent person would do.
So is Biden really that guy?
I heard Biden speak once in the 1970s, when my father got his Master’s Degree in civil engineering at Villanova University near Philadelphia and the young senator delivered the commencement address. That was pretty exciting, but I didn’t understand much of what he said. I have not interviewed or met him in person.
I have however spoken to some of his predecessors (Jimmy Carter, the two George Bushes and Bill Clinton) and a long list of global politicians from every continent you can find. That’s enough to give you a good sense about politicians. And it’s not even about politicians. Live among people long enough and you get to sense with high probability of being right when you have met a decent one.
In my reading this is rare among politicians. Democracy may be the least bad system, but it does not tend to bring out the best in people. Many politicians would sell you down the river for another day in power (or much less). The current gallery of national leaders continues quite a few who are obviously indecent — who do not care much for their society at all (their voters are either complicit or unaware, in which case they do not have excellent instincts). This unfortunate, depressing list obviously includes Biden’s likely opponent in the race. But it does not, I sense, include the president himself.
I know Trump thinks otherwise. He argues that there has never been a more corrupt president in the history of the United States than Biden, and corruption is indecent. Trump’s claim suggests either that he lacks self-awareness (see below video), cannot remember back four years, or lies without visible hesitation; all three may be true. I’m giving Trump’s claim all the consideration it is due and sticking with my assessment.
Now, back to that prediction.
How certain do you have to be to make one? People will tell you they’re “100% sure” and sometimes they really are — but usually, an 80% likelihood will suffice to make a person roll the dice. That’s about where I am on this one.
Tell you what, though: I assess the chances are even higher that if Biden does not pull out he will lose. And I’m pretty sure he knows it.
