- 56% anticipate market rally will continue into the new year
- Majority (78%) feel confident about their investments
- Political uncertainty and geopolitical instability seen as main threats to the rally
- Over a third (37%) of retail investors anticipate interest rates declines in the coming year
- 26% plan to invest more as interest rates decline, particularly younger investors
The majority (56%) of retail investors globally and 64% of Romanian investors are optimistic that the current bull market will extend into the next year, according to the latest quarterly Retail Investor Beat from trading and investing platform eToro.
The study, which surveyed 11,000 retail investors across 13 countries, found that retail investors’ positive outlook for 2026 is also reflected in their confidence in their portfolios, with 78% expressing confidence in their investments, a percentage that remains unchanged from Q3 and the same time last year.
The latest Retail Investor Beat reveals that investors see political uncertainty (43%), geopolitical instability or war (40%) and slowing economic growth or a recession (34%) as the leading external risks to the bull market in 2026. Romanian investors are more worried about geopolitical instability or war (49%). They are also more concerned with inflation and recession risks than their global peers.
When asked about whether they are on track to achieve their investment goals, a majority (51%) believe they are, while 36% say it’s too early to tell. Romanian investors are more reserved, with 38% believing they are on track and 49% saying it is too early to tell.
Commenting on the data, eToro’s Global Market Strategist Lale Akoner, said: “Despite the recent market downturn, declining interest rates, robust corporate earnings and a calming of the political landscape are driving investors’ confidence in the market’s potential for 2026. Retail investors’ confidence in their portfolios also remains high, suggesting that investors are looking past short-term fears, but they also recognise that achieving long-term goals requires more time, stability and consistent market performance.”
| Biggest external risks to bull market | Global | Romanian investors |
| Political uncertainty | 43% | 41% |
| Geopolitical instability or war | 40% | 49% |
| Slowing economic growth or recession | 34% | 41% |
| Persistent or resurging inflation | 27% | 38% |
| Global supply chain disruptions or commodity shocks | 23% | 19% |
| Interest rate hikes or tighter monetary policy | 21% | 26% |
| High market valuations/asset bubbles | 21% | 19% |
| Weak corporate earnings | 16% | 14% |
| Consumer demand weakening | 19% | 29% |
Lale Akoner added: “While strong fundamentals support investors’ optimism, this year has proven that market certainty is never guaranteed. At a time of heightened market volatility, fueled by political and geopolitical instability, it has become essential for investors to remain vigilant and closely monitor potential risks.
“These risks loom large as we head into 2026 because they carry the potential to reshape policy priorities, trade relationships and the global economic outlook in ways that are difficult to predict. Retail investors understand that political outcomes can materially affect sectors, valuations and capital flows at a time when markets are assessing the durability of the current rally.”
Investors anticipate interest rate changes for 2026
A majority of investors anticipate changes in interest rates in 2026, with 37% expecting a decrease and 29% an increase. Among those who foresee a decrease, 18% predict a slight reduction of up to 0.25%, while 16% expect a moderate decrease between 0.25% and 0.75%.
| Interest rates expectations for 2026 | Global | Romanian Investors |
| Rates will increase dramatically (> +0.75%) | 3% | 9% |
| Rates will increase moderately (+0.25% to +0.75%) | 10% | 21% |
| Rates will increase slightly (< +0.25%) | 16% | 24% |
| Rates will remain about the same | 21% | 14% |
| Rates will decrease slightly (< -0.25%) | 18% | 12% |
| Rates will decrease moderately ( -0.25% to -0.75%) | 16% | 10% |
| Rates will decrease dramatically (> -0.75%) | 3% | 4% |
The current interest rate decline in the US and Eurozone has prompted 42% of retail investors (49% of Romanian ones) to adjust their portfolios. Of those planning further changes, 26% (29% of Romanian investors) intend to invest more. This is particularly so for younger investors, with 38% of Generation Z (37% for Romanian investors) and 34% (31% for Romanians) of millennials planning to increase their investments, compared to 12% (21% for Romanians) of baby boomers and 23% (also 23% of Romanians) of Generation X.
As interest rates decline, retail investors are planning to allocate more of their investments in the next 12 months to growth sector stocks (23%), cryptoassets (20%), cash or short-term savings (19%), dividend-yielding stocks (18%), commodities such as gold and oil (18%), and real estate and property funds (17%). Romanian retail investors are more drawn to crypto assets (27%), followed by growth stocks (25%), dividend-yielding stocks (24%), cash or short-term savings (23%), commodities (19%), bonds (18%) and real estate (17%).
Lale Akoner commented: “With central banks now firmly in cutting mode, many investors expect room for additional reductions in 2026. The recent moves have already encouraged a more active approach, particularly among younger investors, who see this as an opportunity to rebuild and reposition for long-term wealth creation.
“As rates decline, investors are showing interest in a blend of growth opportunities and defensive assets, reflecting a pragmatic balance between near-term caution and long-term ambition.”
Bogdan Maioreanu, eToro Market analyst for Romania, added: “Romania’s current economic environment is characterized by slowing growth, high inflation and an increase in taxes. This is also shaping the behavior of Romanian retail investors. We have seen a lower expectation than the global average to reach their investment goals. The geopolitical tensions are the main concerns for the continuation of the bull market in 2026, which could be explained by the country’s proximity to the conflict in Ukraine. “
“Despite all this, they are showing high confidence in their portfolios and an increased appetite for crypto, growth stocks and dividend ones. Also, the high-interest-rate environment in Romania is making cash deposits and bonds interesting investment vehicles. Ultimately, the majority of Romanian retail investors are confident that, despite all the hardships, the bull market will continue in 2026.”
