Romania’s economy grew by 0.6 percent last year but entered a technical recession in the final months of the year after two consecutive quarterly contractions, according to flash estimates published on Friday.
Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 from the previous quarter, following a 0.2 percent decline in the third quarter, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) said. Technically, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan ruled out any crisis for the country, describing the technical recession as a temporary and expected cost of an economic transition.
On an annual basis, GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.6 percent lower than a year earlier, INS data showed.
Romania has begun shifting from a growth model driven by deficits and consumption to one based on investment, productivity, exports, and fiscal discipline, Bolojan said in a Facebook post.
“The temporary technical recession is part of the anticipated and inevitable cost of this transition, which will ultimately lead to a solid economy and healthy growth,” he added.
INS said quarterly seasonally adjusted data were revised following the inclusion of fourth-quarter estimates, in line with European statistical practice.
As a result, first-quarter 2025 growth compared with the previous quarter was revised to a 0.6 percent contraction, while second-quarter growth was revised slightly lower, and the third-quarter decline was revised slightly smaller.
International institutions had forecast modest growth for Romania in 2025. The International Monetary Fund estimated a one percent growth, while the World Bank projected 0.8 percent. The European Commission cut its estimate to 0.7 percent in a report published last November.
The National Bank of Romania expects economic stagnation in the first quarter of 2026, citing the impact of already adopted fiscal measures and still-elevated inflation, which stood at 9.7 percent in 2025, according to minutes from its January policy meeting.
