It’s worth taking a look at March to May 2026: Donald Trump’s authoritarian regime in the making and Vladimir Putin’s dictatorship have simultaneously fallen into the hands of Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine.
Trump has seen himself in this position twice in the span of only two months thanks to Iran and Russia.
- In the case of Iran, Trump needed Ukrainian advice for the US military, in the conflict, for anti-drone defense. And as Washington was unable to protect its own troops, and those in allied Gulf states, it needed Kyiv’s emergency intervention – with military, drones and know-how for the sheikhs in the region (in the international press the Ukrainian leader was even baptized “Volodymyr of Arabia“, after the no longer famous Lawrence of the early twentieth century to deal with Iranian attacks.
- But also because of Russia. This year the dictator needed concrete guarantees that there will be no disruptions of the May 9 parade in Red Square. To get these guarantees, Putin spoke with Trump, and Trump publicly asked Zelenskyy for a “short ceasefire.” Zelenskyy agreed, agreed to keep his drones in check on May 9, but not without an ironic reply, cleverly formulated to suggest that Trump has become indebted to him on behalf of Putin: “Will we clarify what exactly means: a few hours of security for a parade in Moscow or something more?” And Zelensky announced he had issued a decree “authorizing” the holding of the festivities in Moscow, even providing GPS coordinates with the places in the Russian capital that were to be protected from Ukraine’s drones.
Putin, also twice in just two months, also found himself in an embarrassing position.
By asking the Americans to defend him at least for a day from the Ukrainians, Russians and the rest of the world understood that four years of war had brought Russia to its knees. It’s implicit that the longer the war drags on, it will become harder for Russia to recover. Another no less humiliating aspect: due to general fear and a shortage of military hardware tanks, missiles and other heavy equipment were absent from Red Square; there were fewer soldiers and a march also disappeared from the program; and part of the parade took place via video, like the students’ classes during the pandemic.
Another premiere: in April, the Russian army not only stopped advancing on the front in Ukraine, but actually lost ground (120 square kilometers, according to an AFP analysis, made on data from the Institute for the Study of War).
But there are more obstacles lying in wait for the American and Russian leaders. Beyond the Ukrainian ditch they fell this spring, the Chinese pit is awaiting them.
Next week, (May 14 and 15) Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing.
The long-awaited summit has already started badly for Washington, as Iran war has already forced the US president to postpone the original date in April to May.
And, most likely, the summit itself will start on a more modest note, given that Donald Trump will appear to Xi Jinping as having few cards in his hand: his tariffs have been shattered, his popularity rating is falling dramatically just before midterm elections, and the war in Iran has exposed the natural limits of American military power. as he also exposed a growing deficit in US political power, given the perverse effect that Trump’s strategy on Iran has had on America’s relations with Gulf allies, as well as on the global economy.
Given this context, the Trump-Xi summit could be dangerous for US allies around the world, as a weakened US president can be both lured and forced by his Chinese counterpart to toxic concessions in favor of Beijing (especially on the Taiwan file and in terms of widening China’s room for maneuver in the Asia-Pacific).
But the Trump-Xi summit isn’t great news for Russia either despite the so-called “no limits” friendship Moscow and Beijing boast about.
- On the one hand, a weakened Trump gives Xi leverage to increase his influence globally and including in relation to America. This comes at a time when China has gained unprecedented ascendancy over Russia – also thanks to a war that went wrong, the one in Ukraine, also thanks to a leader exhausted by the war that went wrong, Vladimir Putin.
- On the other hand, as committed as they are to a general collision course, the US and China are just as interested in finding common opportunities at least in marginal areas. Economic, political and security factors will push them in this direction. This would be a serious blow to Putin, and in the harsh conditions in which the Russian dictator finds himself today. Such a blow would be felt even more painfully than under less adverse circumstances. Putin has made state policy rewriting history, but there is one thing he cannot change: in 1969, Moscow and Beijing fought a brief border-war during which communist China got closer to the capitalist US, greatly frustrating communist Moscow.
PS: In May 2026, the parade in Red Square went as we anticipated in May 2023.
“But since last year, the Victory Parade is less and less about victory, and if the invasion of Ukraine maintains or accelerates its trend, soon there will be no parade – because there will be no more soldiers, no tanks, cannons or missiles; maybe not even patience, stupidity, laziness, carelessness, among the spectator and television people”.
- “On the other hand, we have the risk that did not exist a year ago, but which has become possible in the meantime and is currently blowing in the back of the regime’s neck: the risk that the very day of the Victory Parade will be defiled by Ukrainian surprises “in flight”, in Moscow or in other cities”.
- “Even if May 9, 2023 passes without such happenings with drone-bombers or at least with devices that only by their mere and sudden presence disturb the Kremlin’s tranquility and humiliate its prime minister under the eyes of his subjects, for the Russia of 2023 the threat of this type persists and it may materialize in the period to come.”
