As Donald Trump maintains a hostile discourse against the U.S. federal government, and chainsaw wielder Elon Musk destabilizes state institutions with job cuts, intimidation, and spending cuts, America will become an increasingly ineffective power.
As Donald Trump shakes up the American intelligence services and puts more and more employees of these special structures out to grass, Donald Trump’s America will become an increasingly “uninformed” power and open to penetration by intelligence agencies of other countries, including or notably by Russia and China.
In this delicate chapter of the intelligence agencies, trust is fundamental between allies.
Trust was massively undermined by President Donald Trump even before he was invested, first of all by nominating Tulsi Gabbard as head of national intelligence (a pro-Russian and pro-Assad individual of the caliber you rarely see at this level). And the rest is melting away now, under the impetus of Trump’s efforts to freeze the relationship with European allies and warm up relations with Putin’s Russia. Signs have already appeared (and against this background, things can only develop in this direction) in European chancelleries of the reluctance to maintain the exchange of intelligence with the Americans at the levels and quality that had been the case until January 20, 2025.
As Donald Trump destroys America’s partnerships with Europe and disrupts NATO to the point of threatening its very existence, the security umbrella for America itself is coming apart.
Even if the US has in the past made a decisive contribution to European security, it was not just a one-way street. America also benefited, in this relationship, from a natural return. The Europeans weren’t only beneficiaries in relation to the US, but also security providers, and above all a multilateral platform for projecting American force all over the world.
Of course, what could soon happen in the Pacific, on the scale of the relationship between the US and its allies in that part of the world, must be seen in the mirror of what is happening now in the Atlantic.
In any case, less US presence in Europe will therefore mean a hemorrhaging of markets in Europe for the Americans, as well as a massive dilution of US politico-military influence in Europe and far beyond its shores.
Moreover, at the moment the US problem is getting worse as the Japanese, South Koreans and Australians are certainly starting to make their own calculations and contingency plans regarding their relationship with America.
In fact, one can suspect that, in the watchful eyes of officials in Tokyo, Seoul and Canberra, this relationship is already not what it used to be. The immediate future will not be long in delivering the first clarifications about what this can or will mean.
In this whole context of ‘America First’ that is tending to turn the USA into ‘America Zero’, the US fate should not to be lamented. After all, this is the path that a narrow majority of American voters chose (in the campaign, however, Trump had signaled clearly enough that after him there would be a flood).
On the other hand, the fate of dozens of other countries is to be lamented, because what Trump will trigger by the moral, political, economic and military weakening of his own nation is an encouragement of Russia and China to translate into reality the most aggressive plans envisaged in Moscow and Beijing.
After all, for the two revisionist dictatorships, Trump represents a once-in-a-century opportunity. Why should Putin and Xi not try to take advantage of the opportunity while this window is open – Putin “uniting” Russia with the ex-Soviet countries, and Xi uniting China with Taiwan?
A precursor and accelerator of wars across the Atlantic and across large areas of the Pacific, in reality is Donald Trump.
And if things develop in the coming years as they began in the first six weeks of his presidency, Americans can now look forward to the thought that Donald Trump may even be a precursor and accelerator for a new civil war on US soil.
Given the global context created only so far by the Trump administration, nothing is too much when it comes to imagining the direction of potential developments.
Too much, possibly, would be, on the contrary, precisely the fact of not imagining as much as possible.
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