US warns Poland Russia may be preparing military ‘provocation’

Sursa: X

NATO could respond to a potential provocation with attacks on Kaliningrad, St Petersburg, the Kola Peninsula, and the Black Sea, according to British publication The Telegraph, citing German Luftwaffe head Holger Neumann.

The United States has warned Poland that Russia is preparing a potential military “provocation” against the country, according to sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki, quoted by Polish outlet Onet.

A Polish ambassador to a NATO country and a source in Poland’s defense ministry confirmed that a provocation in either Poland or a Baltic state is being considered a risk, the report said.

According to The Telegraph in the UK, the attack could be launched as soon as the next few months and could consist of missile or drone attacks on infrastructure, as well as a ground invasion from Kaliningrad or Belarus.
The reported goal would be to drive Poland’s NATO Allies to suspend aid to Ukraine.
In April, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Financial Times that Russia could attack a NATO country in “months,” and idea repeated by Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorksi  to CBS News.

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A border crossing could be blamed on faulty GPS or a helicopter rescue mission, The Telegraph, adding that Russia doesn’t believe that Polish forces would engage without first negotiating, due to US pressure.

Moreover, Russia would demand Poland’s Western allies stop providing aid to Ukraine in return for a withdrawal, which Moscow would consider a victory, the report said.

European security officials added that Russia would likely see greater strategic value in staging any provocation through Poland, according to The Telegraph.

The recent NATO naval exercise involving US forces in Latvia may have been intended to deter any Russian provocation.

NATO could respond to a potential provocation with attacks on Kaliningrad, St Petersburg, the Kola Peninsula, and the Black Sea, The Telegraph said, citing German Luftwaffe head Holger Neumann.
Poland borders Russia, Belarus, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, making the NATO and EU member geographically vulnerable to Russian threats.

NATO leaders set to meet next week, Russia will be on the agenda

NATO leaders will meet in Ankara on July 7 and 8, to discuss various issues including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In a text agreed upon by ambassadors on Friday, the countries reaffirm their commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

“An attack on one is an attack on all,” reads the declaration.

Article 5 of NATO states that all members will come to the defense of a member that has been attacked.

The declaration also says Russia poses “a long-term threat” to “Euro-Atlantic security and stability.”

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled his frustration with NATO, and in April, said he was considering withdrawing the United States from the alliance.

He is nevertheless expected to attend next week’s summit, as is the Polish president, Nawrocki.

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