The first meeting of the Board of Peace, invented by US President Donald Trump, will take place next week, on February 19.
Romania, like many other countries, has to decide on two things: whether it will join and whether it will participate the inauguration.
Membership also involves weighing two other decisions: you join as a full member, in which case you pay the fee – one billion dollars; or you join as an observer, in which case you have a seat somewhere in the back, and this place is guaranteed for a maximum of three years – after that, Mr. Trump will see whether or not he does a “deal” with you to continue staying or, if not, you pack your bags and leave.
Allies of the US (and Romania) have been hesitant on both aspects (accession and their presence at the February 19 meeting). Some have even announced that they will not join (such as Poland and Italy, the latest and also extremely relevant for Bucharest).
Many foreign experts and political leaders have been puzzled by the oversized role that Donald Trump seems to be playing both in terms of the selection of members and sending invitations, as well as the dynamics and the way the body functions.
As things stand at the moment, the risk of sovereign countries being treated more like toys, depending on Trump’s state of mind is intolerably high inviting healthy skepticism and total caution.
President Nicușor Dan has announced so far that Romania is carefully studying the invitation as well as the invitation to the February 19 meeting. He also announced that Bucharest is holding consultations with Washington, and will also hold consultations with European leaders.
Last but not least, Nicușor Dan’s most recent public statement shows that, although Bucharest’s official decision has not been announced, there are still reservations and unresolved questions regarding the meaning of this Board for Council.
This is promising because only those who choose not to see or don’t understand fail to notice the holes in Trump’s proposal and at the same time the potential risks of association with his project.
There are, of course, massive differences between the way a president relates to such topics and the way an simple observer, expert, analyst looks at it. Therefore, Nicusor Dan’s caution regarding the Board of Peace is understandable.
Yet there are some aspects that President Nicușor Dan cannot overlook in his deliberation, and these aspects guide him to refuse Trump twice: on the question of accession and attending next week’s meeting.
Let’s review them:
- The analysis of the publicly available data so far on the Board of Peace raises well-founded suspicions that Donald Trump is seeking to undermine the UN (by extension, and other relevant international formats) without putting in place something significantly more solid or at least commensurate with what he is undermining.
- The way in which Donald Trump acts in international relations reveals a monopolistic tendency in terms of initiative and decision, as well as a tendency to erratic behavior. For starters, he explicitly said that he did not care about international law, and what he put in its place was shocking: his own morality. From this perspective, the Board of Peace is a shadow of the UN, because in the first case it is down to the will of a single man, while in the second the a small group of large states has influence. It is a huge difference, though.
- Against the background of the turbulence caused by Trump on the global scene, including in relation to traditional US allies (most European), there has been a massive repositioning of US partners, especially European ones. A repositioning focused on greater firmness in relations with Donald Trump and on increasing cohesion between EU and NATO states, in order to effectively counter aggressive US foreign policy. Therefore, any temptation to synchronize with Trump’s America will first have to pass through the filter of synchronization with European partners. There is already a nucleus in full configuration in this regard that Romania must take into account, a mixture of Western and Eastern European countries, with the emblematic case of Poland. If Nicușor Dan really wants to consolidate the Bucharest-Warsaw partnership (which would be extremely useful), his reservations towards the Board should increase significantly
- It should also be noted that the Board of Peace wasn’t looking that attractive even before it was established – few countries have said yes; and of those, even fewer or none at all could be an inspiration for Romania.
- At the same time, Donald Trump’s Board of Peace has all the ingredients to be a “Golden” platform for settling scores between various states torn by old rivalries – for example, Pakistan is happy to get involved, while India harbors some deep hesitations. It would be difficult for any new international body to repair the rifts, but the Board, the way Trump envisaged it has a special gift for deepening existing ones.
- Finally, Romania will have to take care with a Board designed to increase Donald Trump’s influence globally, because the more influential Trump becomes on this stage, the more influential everything around him becomes, such as MAGA. And Bucharest, like most of its European allies, cannot fail to take into account the recent revelations that the State Department will fund MAGA-aligned organizations in European countries. That is, it will blow into the sails of the so-called sovereignists – famous for their rapprochement with Russia and for their hostility towards the EU (and in some cases to NATO).
So, while deliberating on whether to accept or refuse Trump’s invitation and the inauguration, the Romanian President will need to ask himself some basic questions:
- Is it worth committing Romania to a project that could undermine the UN?
- Is it worth committing Romania to a project that would put Romania and other states at the mercy of a single individual?
- Is it worth committing Romania to a potential collision course with its most trusted allies today – European allies?
- Is it worth sitting Romania at a table where it seems impossible to find a decent partner to dialogue with?
- Is it worth Romania engaging in a project that could maintain and deepen fault lines between various states?
- Romania has some interest in engaging in a project that can provide an additional leverage to its initiator to undermine democracy on the continent and the European Union itself.
If Nicușor Dan answers NO to all six questions – it would be common sense and show he has an understanding of history – then we already know what answer he will put in the envelope from Cotroceni Palace to the White House.
Romanian president attends high-stake talks in fortress on Europe’s competitiveness
