Mobile phone sales are forecast to increase this year due to more favorable macroeconomic conditions and improved consumer sentiment, reversing a negative trend seen over the last few years. This is good news for major phone manufacturers that are starting to bring new models to the market this fall, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.
The next one to announce its new models is Apple, which is launching its new iPhone 16 series on September 9.
The global phone shipments forecast for 2024 was raised by research company Counterpoint to 1.23 billion units, a 5% increase compared to last year. But this figure is still 21% below the heights of 2017 of 1.56 billion units. The signal is important though as it’s reversing the decreasing trend we have seen since 2021. Analysts believe that the introduction of Generative AI will raise the shipments forecast beyond this year as major manufacturers are rushing to install this new technology into their new devices. This is likely to trigger increasing adoption. Counterpoint estimates are that the share of GenAI-capable smartphones is expected to go from less than a fifth in 2024 to more than half in 2028 with Apple’s AI (Apple Intelligence), available in its upcoming models,likely to boost GenAI devices in the whole smartphone market. It could create an opportunity for Apple to rise to the top in annual shipments as soon as in 2025.
In fact, fans and investors alike are waiting for the unveiling of Apple new iPhone 16 terminals next Monday. In the past couple of years the new generation of iPhones brought only camera and processor improvements and had little innovation; this is why the expectations for the new models are high. Apple lost to Samsung the leadership in the market share at the end of Q1. Apple’s shipments declined 13% YoY, as worldwide iPhone shipments came in at 50.6 million or 17% of global market share. Samsung account for 20% shipment share or 59.4 million units.
But in the European Union the generative AI function of Apple terminals will not roll out when it releases them, the company said, due to privacy concerns stemming from the Digital Markets Act. And this might impact the appeal of new Apple terminals. Investors are also waiting for new form factors like flip or foldable phones and a ramp up in innovation. Apple’s entry into foldables is expected in 2027 but for now analysts estimate that Chinese brands such as Huawei, HONOR and Motorola will drive growth in this market.
Apple is a company that is very important for investors. It is the fourth most held stock by individual investors in eToro globally and also by Romanian investors. That is why the interest and the expectations for the new iPhone are high, given that phone terminals sales accounted for half of Apple revenues in Q2 this year. So far, Apple’s stock price gained almost 19% year to date but how the new iPhones will be received by the public will certainly influence the stock’s evolution.
