Black October: Two Years Later, a Crossroads Between Ruin and Renewal

It has been two years since the October 7th attack by the Hamas terrorist group ruling Gaza — a day that shocked Israel and the world, leaving over 1,200 dead in a meticulously planned massacre. That day sparked a devastatingly brutal counterattack in which tens of thousands of Gazans have been killed, and the two-year mark finds the region at a pivotal moment, with negotiations underway on Trump’s proposal to end the war – the sticking point being Hamas disarming.

If Hamas complies, a rapid chain of transformative events could follow. The remaining hostages would be returned, alive or dead; Hamas’s military infrastructure would be dismantled; an alternative, responsible government could replace the current terror regime, ultimately restoring the Palestinian Authority, after meaningful reforms in education and other areas. Tens of billions of dollars from Gulf countries and other partners would flow into Gaza, rebuilding infrastructure, schools, and hospitals. And the diplomatic front could see unprecedented rapprochement between Israel and not only Saudi Arabia but potentially Syria, Lebanon, and other regional actors as well.

If Hamas refuses, Israel will probably scale up its operations — with US backing — into a full takeover of Gaza. This will likely lead to a military administration over the 2 million Gazans, reminiscent of the pre-Oslo times, with little having little hope of freeing its hostages, and facing a huge likelihood of a prolonged insurgency. More people will be killed, Israel’s isolation would deepen, reconstruction would be delayed and the region would face years of instability.

For many of the jihadists, the second scenario is an empty threat; indifferent to Palestinians’ lives and situation, they welcome it because it damages Israel. It would amount to Israel walking into the trap Hamas set for it two years ago. It comes down to how hard Qatar and the other Arabs will pressure Hamas.

How this crisis resolves will also help determine the future of Benjamin Netanyahu, who has conducted himself the way he always does – in a manner that has around half of Israel (in this case more) despising and distrusting him. While most Israelis (and even the Arab League as of late) support the goal of removing and disarming Hamas, it was foreseeable that military action alone could not achieve this as long as Hamas had Israeli hostages as a human shield. And throughout these two years Netanyahu walked away from better options while using the war as political cover that enabled him to survive what should have been a career-ending breakdown. Moreover, Israel’s war conduct has been so brutal and deadly that he finds himself both opposed by most of the Israeli public and wanted for war crimes at the Hague. It will be interesting to see whether an end to the war makes those charges go away.

Adding a dash of comedy to the tragedy, Trump obviously wants dramatic movement by Thursday (in the talks that are underway in Cairo) so that the Nobel committee can award him the peace prize on Friday. That’s why he issued a premature statement on Saturday claiming Hamas accepted peace, and called Netanyahu (who is certainly often negative) “so fucking negative.” It’s hard to imagine an assemblage of prim and proper Nordic liberals feting a vulgarian who is a menace to the Western alliance and a fan of Vladimir Putin, but then again, with Trump I am done making predictions.

Given all this, the moment calls for a unprecedented and monumental stock-taking, because the issues that have surfaced over two years of madness, and the questions before those who care about the region, are huge (pronounced in the Trumpy manner). We shall also examine the widespread delegitimization of Israel that emerged almost as soon as the Jewish state was attacked — and the weird possibility that despite the horrendous human toll there is an upside.