A periodic newsletter on the latest events in the region.
Today’s inaugural edition covers the Greta Thunberg “Selfie Yacht” stunt flotilla, the ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, the Shiite militias in Iran, Lebanon, the coalition crisis in Israel and the stumbling Gaza negotiations.
Greta’s Excellent Adventure
In an incident blending farce and high drama, the Israeli Navy on Tuesday morning intercepted the Madleen, a British-flagged yacht carrying Greta Thunberg and 11 other pro-Palestinian activists, as it attempted to break the Gaza blockade. After ignoring repeated warnings, the vessel was boarded at sea, detained for hours while “sailing in circles,” and eventually towed to Ashdod. The activists were then taken to Ben Gurion Airport for deportation.
Interior Minister Moshe Arbel declared all passengers unwelcome, saying Israel “will not permit harm to its sovereignty by way of provocative protest flotillas.” Some activists, including Thunberg, agreed to leave voluntarily. Others, including French MEP Rima Hassan and several journalists, refused to sign deportation papers and are now contesting their expulsion before a tribunal. Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly planned to screen a harrowing IDF film about Hamas’s October 7 massacre for the detained activists — and document their reactions — but the Foreign Ministry and Prime Minister’s Office blocked the idea. Katz later claimed the activists refused to watch it.
Thunberg, who normally avoids flying for environmental reasons, flew out via France, telling lawyers she’d do more good outside of Israel than in detention. Before the interception, she had recorded a video accusing Israel of kidnapping her. In a rare display of humor, the Israeli authorities appear to have placed her in the last row of Economy, where the seats do not recline.
The yacht, part of a publicity campaign by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, carried symbolic aid like rice and baby formula. Israel dismissed the mission as a pro-Hamas stunt, saying what was left of the yacht’s aid would be delivered through proper channels.
Excerpts from my comments about this on I24 (for the full interview see the above video): I don’t … think there is any misunderstanding, really, among any thinking person that Israel had little choice but to intercept the yacht. To allow a bunch of celebrities to enter Gaza in the middle of a war zone and risk them being killed would have been irresponsible in the extreme. So I think Israel handled it rather well: It went off without a hitch (and) they were smart enough to say that the piddling amount of aid that they’re bringing in, that which had not been consumed by the celebrities, would be sent to Gaza. I don’t want to make light of this. The situation in Gaza is a genuine cataclysm for all sides, basically. And it’s in a way a little sad. The causes that Greta Thunberg espouses are real causes. The people of Gaza … really have a problem and deserve help. The climate crisis is a real thing that (requires) mitigation. And to have her, a clear publicity hound with a very simplistic doctrine that she espouses, being the face of all this, does it all disservice.
Meanwhile…
Negotiations on ending the Gaza war remain stuck
With talks deadlocked and all sides digging in amid mounting desperation. There is no serious diplomatic movement — only a bloody status quo with shifting tactics and deepening despair. This past week saw the launch of a new aid distribution system, backed by the U.S. and coordinated with Egypt and Jordan, aimed at easing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Yet even that fragile initiative is threatened by mistrust and sporadic violence – and Gazans have been killed trying to reach the distribution centers (shot at by whom, is not exactly clear) . Israeli airstrikes continued to target Hamas operatives, civilian casualties mounted yet again, as well as deaths of Israeli soldiers.
Still, the outlines of a viable endgame are visible. A reformed Palestinian Authority backed by Arab states and the West could plausibly take over Gaza. Billions in reconstruction funds are ready. Even Hamas has shown signs it would cede power. But none of this will happen unless the United States imposes a plan. Only Washington has the leverage to compel both Israel and the Palestinians toward a ceasefire and a future. Until then, more blood will be spilled, more opportunities squandered, and the region will remain locked in a tragic loop.
The US is, however, pressing on with nuclear negotiations with Iran
In an interview with I24, Rafael Grossi, director of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke about the threat of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and how the IAEA can keep it in check: “What I’m telling them is that they should allow us to do what we want to do. … Well, if this is the case, then they should allow us to do our job and to get as much access as we can. .. I simply say, frankly speaking, conversation with the IAEA goes hand by hand with inspections. It’s a heavy responsibility on our shoulders, which we assume with great responsibility. But please do not believe that we are naive, because if we continue to engage, it is not because we ignore the fallacies, because we ignore the shortcomings in the answers that we are getting, it’s simply because we are in this iterative process. We can demonstrate why these things are not correct and what needs to be shown and what needs to be seen.
My reaction on I24:
If the coming Iran agreement is to have wide public support, it has to rest on the idea that the IAEA is serious about inspections and verification. And there’s no alternative. It has to be this organization that plays that role, by and large. So they’re positioning themselves for this. And I have to think, given what I’m hearing, that they believe a deal might come. You know, the main question is what was really going on between 2015 when Obama and the other powers signed the JCPOA and 2018 when Trump walked away from it. The only logical argument for walking away from it, which I and many others thought was a terrible mistake, was that verification wasn’t real, the inspectors were being blocked, and Iran was able to fool the IAEA. I want to hear them come out clearly and state, was that true or was it untrue? In the past, they kind of denied it, but not terribly convincingly. Verification is going to be the issue here, because Trump can’t just reprise the old deal and claim it’s better and expect serious people to believe it.
There’s going to have to be some visible improvement of the inspection regime and the verification mechanisms that would enable him to claim this is a better deal and indeed that would enable all of us to sleep more soundly in our beds. He sounds extremely determined to play his role in good faith and with maximal determination to prevent Iran from enriching at a weaponizable level, and that’s a piece in the puzzle. It’s fairly reassuring.
I’m still disappointed that the U.S. is not using its current position of leverage against Iran to demand more, like the disarming of Hezbollah, like an end to support for the Houthis and the crazy Shiite militias in Iraq and more.
So here’s the situation with Lebanon:
In Lebanon, a new government has signaled rare resolve to disarm Hezbollah — long a destabilizing proxy of Iran — and the country’s future hinges on whether that effort receives the robust international backing it needs. While the United States has taken some steps, they fall well short of the moment’s urgency.
Since 2006, Washington has poured over $3 billion into training and equipping the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), making it one of the largest recipients of U.S. military aid per capita. This backing has been critical in professionalizing the army, which now stands as the only credible national force that can plausibly challenge Hezbollah’s grip. Following the ceasefire with Israel, the LAF deployed an additional 1,500 troops to southern Lebanon, bringing the total there to around 6,000. It aims to reach 10,000, though it’s unclear how that will be sustained without serious logistical support.
And on the ground, the Lebanese army has reportedly dismantled hundreds of Hezbollah weapons caches south of the Litani River. Some sources say over 90% of Hezbollah’s infrastructure in that zone has been removed. But Hezbollah is not just a militia — it’s a shadow state with political power and deep entrenchment in Lebanon’s economy and society. Dislodging it requires more than local bravery and scattered funding.
What’s missing is a full-court press. The US has so far failed to marshal the Gulf states, Europe, and the broader international community into a coordinated economic and diplomatic push. Trump, who boasts of his “maximum pressure” strategies elsewhere, has been notably passive. If he’s serious about striking a nuclear deal with Iran, it should be conditioned on a full halt to Tehran’s support for Hezbollah and the Houthis. For now, Lebanon’s window for change is real — but closing fast.
The “crazy Shiite militias in Iraq”
Here’s an explanation of what I meant by that.
For two decades, Iraq was central to US foreign policy — costing $2 trillion and over 4,500 American lives. But today, it risks slipping into geopolitical irrelevance. That would be a dangerous mistake. Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq, known collectively as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), now control much of the country’s security apparatus. These aren’t fringe actors. Groups like Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq operate with Iraqi government approval and are effectively directed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. They’ve attacked U.S. forces, launched drones at Israel, and committed sectarian atrocities—torture, ethnic cleansing, executions of Sunni civilians. In January 2024, a PMF group killed three U.S. troops in Jordan and injured dozens more.
For years, the US has looked the other way—tolerating these militias in the name of stability or counterterrorism. But that has only enabled Iran’s influence to deepen. As one expert put it bluntly: “Iraq is a state sponsor of terrorism.”
If Trump wants to leave a lasting legacy in the Middle East, he must make dismantling this proxy empire a top priority. That doesn’t require a new war—but it does require serious pressure. The U.S. should sanction PMF-controlled businesses, target militant leaders with precision strikes, and force Baghdad to choose: align with the U.S. or face isolation. Some PMF factions could even be co-opted if the U.S. offers credible incentives. Regional allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE can help counterbalance Iran’s grip.
Iraq borders Iran and holds strategic energy assets. Letting it fall entirely under Iranian control would be a gift to Tehran—and a betrayal of everything America fought for.
Lastly, the coalition crisis in Israel:
A vote of no-confidence in Israel’s government is scheduled for Wednesday, but no one should expect a quick collapse. The ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties, threatening to bolt over stalled draft exemption legislation, aren’t eyeing better options — and may yet back down. Their bluffing is obvious. But the spectacle underscores the bone-crushing disgrace of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to absolve them from military service in the middle of a war.
With soldiers dying and reservists overstretched, a leaked recording from March aired on Channel 13 shows Netanyahu bragging to a top Haredi rabbi about firing Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi — not for failure, but for opposing a law that would enshrine mass Haredi draft-dodging. “Now we can move,” Netanyahu said, pushing for a delay that would outflank critics. “We can save olam ha-Torah.”
The blowback was ferocious — not just from secular Israelis, but from religious Zionists who serve disproportionately in combat units. Gallant, speaking after the leak, accused Netanyahu of “putting coalition over country.” Halevi had earlier declared: “Everyone needs to be drafted.”
The Haredim, now about one-sixth of Israel’s population, remain largely exempt from service. Some study sincerely. Many do not. In wartime, this is intolerable. Over 100,000 reservists have been mobilized since October; many have spent more than 200 days away from their lives. Meanwhile, 80,000 Haredi men sit it out — protected by an “arrangement” that once covered hundreds but now threatens national cohesion.
Some claim army service would erode Haredi values. Maybe so. But that’s not a reason to tank a society. The majority of Israelis — including many religious — want this inequality ended. If Netanyahu had an ounce of integrity, he’d dump the Haredim and run on that.
Whether the government falls or not, this crisis won’t vanish.
