With the focus on Russia invading Ukraine, Romanians are looking at the scenario of a Russia offensive in Romania.
Universul.net looks at the scenarios presented by top military analysts.
Romania joined NATO in 2004 and hosts an important Black Sea base and others inland bases. Russia has criticized the bases which it says are a threat. It is opposed to former communist countries like Romania, which was once in its sphere of influence, of being in the Western military alliance.
Tensions
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine_ which wants to join NATO _ have been building since November last year when Russian President Vladimir Putin began massing troops on the border.
Mr Putin has since issued a list of demands to NATO, including that Ukraine be banned from joining the alliance and that troops be removed from Romania and Poland.
NATO and Russia have met for talks but there has been little progress.
In the meantime, Russia has continued massing his forces while announcing a series of large-scale war games that could serve to disguise an invasion.
Troops
In response, U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday they planned to deploy troops in Romania and other eastern NATO member states.
Looking from a military perspective, Romania is vulnerable due to its road, rail and river infrastructure.
U.S. retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of US troops in Europe, an expert on the Black Sea region, has reported on possible scenarios for a Russian-led war against NATO members, including Romania.
The report was prepared by a group of military experts from the American organization CEPA, coordinated by the American general.
For 18 months, the former commander has warned that pulling U.S. soldiers out of Europe is risky because it could determine Russia to test NATO’s defense capacity.
Russia
Russia lies less than 500 kilometers on a straight line from Romania’s eastern border.
Moscow has positioned tens of thousands of troops and heavy military equipment in Crimea.
From a strategic point of view, if Russia attacked Romania, it would keep Europe in check in two directions, the south and the Balkans, but also the center.
Focșani Gate ”or the mouth of the Danube is strategic point. It is an area covering about 85 square kilometers across the counties – Vrancea, Galați, Brăila and Buzău.
It lies between the Prut and Danube rivers. The report says NATO could not bring troops quickly due to the poor infrastructure and communications in the region, but also the fact that Russia has the advantage against NATO troops.
Crimean Peninsula
The first scenario would be a large-scale amphibious operation, launched in the Crimean Peninsula, with Russia deploying forces after annexing the territory. These forces can reach Romania via the Black Sea and can land near the mouth of the Danube.
The second scenario assumes that, before entering Romania, Russian troops pass through Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. In this case, there would be large-scale preparations and troops deployment, which need time which would exclude “the element of surprise.”
Experts believe that this scenario is unlikely.
Read the reports: Focsani Gate
US, France promise additional troops to Romania if Russia invades Ukraine
