Here is a military and tactical analysis published by Novaia Gazeta Europe on the military situation in Ukraine.
Sabotage
It notes that shelling and sabotage have ramped up in Crimea and Russia’s border regions and asks the question:
‘Has Ukraine really taken the initiative in the war?’
Will the geography and frequency of Ukrainian army attacks expand it wonders?
The Russian publication asked the experts. Most of its sources are now in Russia and are unable to speak openly, so they quoted them anonymously or changed their names out of concerns for their safety.
Here are some key excerpts.
Crimea
United Russia officials and tourists are already starting to flee Crimea. According to reports from Sevastopol, part of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters has been moved to Novorossiysk.
According to the publication’s source in Kyiv, Ukraine has assembled more than 90,000-100,000 fighters now in reserve in several central regions of the country.
Officially, Kyiv does not admit responsibility for the sabotage and shelling of Crimea. Only anonymous high-ranking sources talk about elite units operating behind enemy lines, and government officials joke about the harm of smoking at ammunition and oil depots.
Slow push
The most likely scenario for the next couple of months is a continuation of the slow push. Any sudden advances in offensives and counteroffensives are less likely, one expert said. Sabotage and shelling can affect [Russian military capability and morale] depending on specific facilities: for example, HIMARS strikes on ammunition depots disrupt the pace of the Russian offensive because it is based on superior firepower and they cannot expend ammunition as much and as fast as they would like as a result of such strikes.
Moreover, as the war drags on and psychological fatigue and the population’s economic woes continue to grow, we should expect an increase in Ukrainian sabotage throughout Russia — from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok. There are and will be people who are ready to do this. The difficulty so far lies in the absence of channels for supplying weapons and explosives. Fuel and transport infrastructure will come under attack. There could be an attack to paralyze the Trans-Siberian railway.
White elephant
“Crimea, which for many years was presented by the Russian side — and by Putin personally — as a symbol of the country’s security, is becoming a target for more and more serious threats,” concludes an expert given the name of Ilya Barabanov.
“The next stage, when the peninsula becomes ‘a white elephant’, could prove extremely unfortunate for the Kremlin.”
