France and the United Kingdom risk reviving Hamas and hardening Israeli resistance to any future deal
If France and the United Kingdom proceed with their proposed unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state in the current climate, they will not be advancing peace. They will, instead, be throwing a political lifeline to Hamas, and triggering precisely the opposite of what they intend: a hardened Israeli refusal to contemplate any future territorial concessions. Recognition now would suggest that the most barbaric terrorism in the region’s history — the Oct. 7 massacre that sparked the current war — has been rewarded. Hamas needs to disappear, but instead it will be strengthened, which would postpone peace indefinitely.
The desire of France and the UK to do something in reaction to growing pressure over reports of widespread starvation in Gaza is understandable. France plans to recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September; the UK, per Tuesday’s announcement by PM Keir Starmer, will follow suit unless Israel meets complex conditions including agreeing to a ceasefire and embraces some vague peace process. Starmer also has demands of Hamas — good ones, including disarmament — and none of it will likely be met, certainly not because Number 10 Downing Street says so. He’ll either back down or join France.
This is in large part about domestic politics in those two countries, where there is outrage at Israel’s conduct of the war — understandable given that tens of thousands have been killed, and Israel’s Netanyahu government is vile. And yes, malnutrition in Gaza is a serious humanitarian concern that must be addressed. But all this should not dictate strategic decisions in a century-old conflict with global implications — because it risks prompting decisions that, in their hastiness, could very well make things worse.
Much of the world is quite confused about Hamas. This is a theocratic death cult that has spent decades fighting against the two-state solution. From its founding in 1988, Hamas has sought the eradication of Israel and the creation of an Islamic theocracy from the river to the sea within a wider Caliphate.
In service of this goal Hamas has launched innumerable suicide bombings, slaughtering civilians in buses, restaurants, and markets even as Israel was offering the Palestinians a state on almost all the land the PA seeks. It has fired tens of thousands of rockets indiscriminately at Israeli towns and cities, deliberately targeting civilians while using its own as human shields. It hides its weapons in schools and hospitals, then cries foul when those sites are struck. It builds tunnels for fighters and leaves Gazan children exposed to airstrikes — because civilian deaths serve its propaganda needs (and believe me, it is perfectly capable of faking evidence, inflating numbers vastly and lying to journalists).
Since its violent takeover of Gaza in 2007, when it expelled the Palestinian Authority, Hamas has crushed opposition, looted aid, and diverted resources into weapons and war. When Israel withdrew from Gaza, Hamas responded not with state-building, but with nonstop attacks. Every ceasefire is a pause to rearm. And then it invaded Israel, killing 1,200 people in the atrocities of Oct. 7.
Some will say Hamas has been crushed in this war, so strengthening it doesn’t matter much. But one must understand that Hamas has never depended on elite military capability — it is a low-intensity insurgency that thrives on ideology, nihilism, rejectionism and despair. So while the group has been devastated militarily over the course of the war, it can still rebuild — if it’s able to once again establish a strong hold on any part of the Palestinian imagination. The real question is not how many of Hamas’ gunmen remain in play, but whether the group maintains a foothold in Palestinian public opinion.
Recognition of a state now — at the very moment Hamas is claiming that its “resistance” forced the West’s hand — will make sure it does exactly that. The dangerous narrative that the Oct. 7 massacre was a necessary step toward justice for the Palestinians — as opposed to an inexcusable crime that guaranteed the devastation of Israelis and Palestinians alike — will be enshrined.
And that would be fatal not only to Israel’s sense of security, and therefore to any hope of a two-state solution. So, paradoxically, recognition now would not only embolden Hamas, but ensure that the very goal of recognition — a Palestinian state — becomes harder to achieve.
That’s in large part because Israel will not — and frankly, cannot — withdraw from the West Bank while Hamas remains standing. The geography is too sensitive. Jerusalem is surrounded on three sides. Israelis have seen what came out of Gaza — and they will never risk a repeat performance from the hilltops of the West Bank. Not if Hamas is around to take over that area too.
So I am quite confident in asserting: As Hamas exists as an armed and popular force, no Israeli government — left, right, or center — will agree to further land withdrawals, no matter the economic sanctions and global isolation that might ensue. Without further land withdrawals, there is no Palestinian state.
If the international community wants to help the Palestinians — and it should — there are more effective options they can pursue.
First, pressure must be applied to end the war through an arrangement in which a reformed and rejuvenated Palestinian Authority returns to govern Gaza. The current Israeli government, a benighted and unsympathetic collection of ex-cons and fanatics, opposes it; this should be batted aside.
On the other hand, reconstruction aid for Gaza should then be made conditional on Hamas stepping down and disarming. If it does not, there should be no recognition of anything, and Gazans should be allowed to leave for Egypt and other countries on purely humanitarian grounds, same as Ukrainians or Syrians. That will build pressure on Hamas, first and foremost from the Palestinians. (By the way, the reason Palestinians are trapped in Gaza is that Egypt blockades Gaza too, even now — unlike Poland, say, which let in masses of Ukrainians).
The world must stop pretending that Hamas can be accommodated or ignored. And that is precisely what symbolic recognition of a Palestinian state does.
Nearly 150 countries have already recognized Palestine. It has changed nothing, because the preconditions for a real state do not yet exist: There are no defined borders, no unified government, no monopoly on force. Hamas controls Gaza. The Palestinian Authority, nominally in charge of the West Bank, is weak, corrupt, and marginalized. A state in name, under such conditions, is not a state at all. France and the UK adding their imprimatur to this movement, without decisive plans for the removal of Hamas, will bring it no closer to fruition.
Palestinian dignity, rights, and eventual statehood are worthy goals. But they cannot be advanced by rewarding factions that reject peace and celebrate mass murder. This is not an argument against partition. On the contrary: In my view partition is vital for Israel’s survival as both a Jewish and democratic state. Roughly 15 million people live between the Jordan river and the Mediterranean sea, split about evenly between Jews and Arabs. Without separation into two entities, Israel will either lose its Jewish majority or its democratic character. The logic of partition is inescapable — but the path toward it requires that Israelis feel secure.
They cannot do so while Hamas holds any power in the region. Many of those opposed to Palestinian statehood are not racists or zealots (or idiots) — they are terrified. And until that fear is addressed, they will not budge.
Used wisely, recognition is leverage. Used now, it is surrender — not to the Palestinians, but to their worst enemy. And that worst enemy is Hamas.
