The US trade war with China might create effects in grocery prices around the world, Europe included. Already accustomed to inflation, shoppers, including Romanians, are changing their preferences when it comes to groceries, forcing the industry to change, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.
A survey made by consulting giant McKinsey in Europe shows that clients’’ preferences are changing this year when it comes to how customers are shopping for groceries. This year, almost half (48%) of the surveyed European consumers stated that they are looking for ways to save money when shopping. The most price-conscious consumers are the Norwegians, followed by the ones in the UK and on the same spot the Romanians, the Danish and the Spanish consumers.
But out of all the surveyed countries, Romanians are on the first spot when it comes to actively searching for promotions, followed by the Spanish and the Danish. Also, Romanian shoppers are the ones that look the most to buy products from local producers and farmers, followed by the French, the Spanish and the Polish buyers.
Romanian consumers also dominate when it comes to buying high-quality or premium products, closely followed by the Spanish. Romanians are also near the first places when it comes to buying bio products and are ready to pay higher prices for healthier products, but below the European average when it comes to buying the store’s own brands instead of well-known brands. Romanian shoppers are also well above the European average when it comes to buying food from the delis inside the shop.
In fact, these are some of the tendencies that are shaping the European groceries industries this year, according to McKinsey. The intention to look for more ways to save money remains high while consumers seek to buy high-quality products, and we also see a slight increase in the intention toward healthy products. But 2025 is bringing a decrease in the intention to buy environmentally friendly products. For the last one, Romanian shoppers are below the European average but not in the last spots of the poll.
The shopper’s price consciousness is warranted by the latest inflation data from Romania that shows, when it comes to food, that in March, prices rose 5.1% year on year. The champions of price increases were margarine with almost 13%, fruits and fruit cans over 10%. The meat and meat products increased close to 4% year on year.
The trade war of the US with China might scramble the Chinese companies to find some other ways to cover the needs that the US imports cannot satisfy anymore. In 2023, China imported from the US almost 1 billion worth of fruits and nuts and over 3.4 billion of meat and meat products. Now it might look for other suppliers and this will put pressure on prices, including in Europe. China was the third main destination of EU agricultural products exports in 2024 (6% of EU exports) after the UK and the US. However, EU exports to China registered the largest reduction, with a decrease of EUR 1.3 billion (-9%) compared to 2023.
The main exports that decreased were cereals, pig meat, spirits and liquors and dairy products. But the current situation might see a surge in demand for agricultural products in China to replace what cannot be bought currently from the US. This is why the reshaping of supply chains across the world might put pressure on some markets and make prices soar in several food categories.
Investors are closely watching the situation. In fact, according to the latest eToro Retail Investor Beat survey, when asked about the main external risks they see to their portfolios, 26% of the Romanian investors mentioned a Global recession, 23% the inflation, 18% the state of the Romanian economy and 16% a global conflict. And the current trade war initiated by the Trump administration has all the ingredients to tick at least some of these worries.
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