Less than two weeks before the presidential elections, on November 13, 2024, Călin Georgescu was in the Digi24 studio for an electoral debate, an occasion on which he produced a masterful show, a show with a huge warning: for five minutes, Călin Georgescu ummed and ahhed, hesitating, like his soul was torn and his mind was on red alert, not knowing whether to say if admired Russian President, Vladimir Putin. “It’s not my job to respond to this question,” went the most consistent part of his reply.
That moment can be seen in a totally difference light now, put in the context of revelations regarding the way Russia manipulated Romania’s presidential elections, as well as in Romania, of the revelations in the files in which Calin Georgescu and his various associates were prosecuted. We also have the Foreign Ministry’s decision to expel the Russian military attaché and his deputy, and the DIICOT prosecutors file for treason which was made public the very day after the decision to expel the two Russian officials from Putin’s embassy in Bucharest.
In the five minutes he dithered on November 13, 2024, just 11 days before the first round, Călin Georgescu practically owned up to having a full underground collaboration with a state entity which is hostile to his own country.
This moment will serve as a lesson in in civic culture courses in Romanian schools. A simple question forced the wolf in sheep’s clothing to show his true colours. The problem, however, was that Russia’s aggressive push on social media – X, Facebook, TikTok and Telegram – managed to put a huge number of Romanians on the wrong track, a fact reflected in the score obtained by the pro-Russian Georgescu at the polls. And this also needs to be taught in all Romanian schools from now on.
The cancellation of the elections, then the intervention of prosecutors who opened a wave of investigations, as well as the concerted support – diplomatic and secret services – that Romania benefited from from European partners, caused the failure of Russia’s special operation.
Russia’s man, Calin Georgescu, never became president, and a new candidacy was reduced to almost zero (Eds: the Central Electoral Bureau barred him on March 9), the networks the Russians cultivated around Georgescu to destabilize Romania began to be dismantled.
Hats off to relevant Romanian institutions, who have contributed, in one way or another, to the removal of the greatest threat to national sovereignty in the last three decades!
But their work is far from over, because after the inauguration of the Trump administration, Russia made an abrupt change of approach. Moscow has conceded a defeat, but it has not given up yet.
After seeing its Plan A blow up, the Kremlin moved to Plan B: using America as a springboard for Calin Georgescu and the Putinist ‘sovereigntists’.
The fact that the Russians have now switched to exploiting the American resource has been unequivocally revealed by a Russian source.
More precisely, the Russian foreign intelligence service, SVR, which a few days ago made an unusual gesture for a secret service: it publicly intervened, with a press release in which it attacked the dismantling of its operations in Romania, and implicitly defended its key man in Bucharest.
Custom suggests that when a secret service speaks publicly, it is a sign that their other methods – underground and secret – have been exhausted.
In other words, the SVR practically admitted, in its the press that it was involved in the hijacking of the electoral process in Romania and at the same time is now in crisis mode. They made Călin Georgescu a moving target, because they practically assumed him as their own.
But above all, the SVR and, implicitly the Kremlin itself, has signaled a new phase of the “Georgescu” operation. It is that phase in which Moscow tries to present Calin Georgescu as belonging to the Americans.
It is probably a signal not necessarily targeting the general public, but Romanian officials in institutions who have the power to make the Russian operation fail, and by virtue of Romania’s privileged relationship with the US in the past, may be impressed by an association, no matter how ridiculous it may sound, between Georgescu and the US.
It is an attempt to intimidate magistrates (Constitutional Court judges, court judges, prosecutors). It is also a message for politicians, a message for the employees of the intelligence agencies in Bucharest and also a message for the country’s diplomatic corps.
Since the Russians, using all of Russia’s weight, have not managed to intimidate the Romanian authorities – as evidenced by the ongoing investigations against the Georgescu network – they are now trying to sell the idea that the pro-Russian Calin Georgescu is actually America’s man.
It is eloquent from this point of view that the text of the SVR communiqué embraces almost to the point of plagiarism the speech delivered in Munich by the US Vice President, JD Vance. All the cream of Vance’s theses can also be found in the SVR press release.
Moscow hopes that if it itself could not be a good enough scarecrow for Bucharest, then Washington could become this scarecrow.
Vance campaigned, it is true, for Călin Georgescu, as shown by his outburst in Munich and his remarks on the cancellation of the elections in Romania. Elon Musk, the tech billionaire who increasingly eclipses President Trump, is waging a furious campaign against Romanian authorities, on the cancelled elections. And Donald Trump himself is starting to talk about elections in other countries – he started with Ukraine, and has just moved on to Canada.
Vance, Musk and Trump offer Russia golden opportunities to be exploited (blindly or consciously) on presidential elections in Romania, from the perspective of strictly Russian interests. But Vance, Trump, Musk offer Russia such opportunities on numerous other files of strategic interest to the Russians (from the approach that the three have towards NATO and the EU, to their cancerous approach regarding democracy and the rule of law in America itself, and to the withdrawal from international bodies vital for the projection of American interests in the world).
In other words, Călin Georgescu is not the man of the Americans, not even of the Trump administration. On the other hand, his anti-NATO and anti-EU orientation happens to be to the liking of the Vance-Musk-Trump triangle because the three are willing to use any lever small or large lever with which they undermine the unity of NATO and the EU. And Călin Georgescu is at most a small variable in their equation.
Dear Romanians, dear Romanian officials, do not confuse the plans: Călin Georgescu Putin’s man, he has never been America’s man,let alone Trump’s man.
However, it is convenient for the Russians to sow confusion because at this moment it is the only weapon they have left to try to convince Bucharest to leave Georgescu alone. Moscow itself knows that only the Americans’ man is not Calin Georgescu, Moscow does not cry about Calin Georgescu’s fate, but the simple fact is that Moscow urgently needs the pro-Russian Calin Georgescu in the Cotroceni presidential palace.
I would not be surprised if in the next period we witness the spread of alarmist messages, operated by the Russians on various channels, that Romania is or risks being stranded, that America will abandon it, that the American military will be withdrawn, that the Europeans are powerless and can’t possibly help us.
What would surprise me, however, would be if Romanians, public opinion and/or officials, were to be so naïve again to bite the new poisoned apple Russia put under our noses.
Romania has a Strategic Partnership with the US, and Trump’s denunciation of it cannot be done with the ease with which you decide whether or not to sell an apartment. The very idea that America could just withdraw all its troops from Europe is one that must be seen in the context of reality, not fiction.
Because even in such a scenario, time will work against the Trump administration (you cannot withdraw thousands or hundreds of thousands of soldiers, logistics and related combat equipment overnight).
Then, money, which Trump values, will become a colossal problem even for America. The huge number of American soldiers hosted in European countries becomes an expense that is difficult to commit immediately – from the actual relocation process to the fact that the financing of their stay is shared, in other words there is a consistent European contribution to this chapter. With them, these soldiers, taken back to the US, the US budget, the one “reformed” by Musk, on Trump’s orders, will have to bear the full financial effort – forever.
Of course, the problem related to the where these soldiers will be relocated to would also have to be solved. Where, in America, will they be redistributed? Of course, there may be solutions on this level as well, but, again, it will take time, because things cannot be done as quickly as you drinking a cup of coffee.
But even if Romania will somehow be left in the arms of Trump’s America, it would still remain the other facet of the new reality (and it is in full configuration). After decades of vacation, Europeans have finally begun to act decisively, in the sense of reconfiguring security policy on the continent.
Europe is no longer asleep! Finally! And we must understand that this time it is not a false signal.
France and Great Britain are extremely active, including in Romania, and what is seen is only a fraction of what is actually being done. Germany has re-entered the scene. A fact unimaginable until now, at least for a chancellor or future Christian Democrat chancellor, Friedrich Merz gave the signal to regain independence in terms of defense from the US.
Together, France, Britain and Germany are coalescing around the core of Europe’s future, as a harsh and pragmatic response to Trump’s destruction of a past that had been mutually beneficial to both sides of the Atlantic and which, above all, has ensured peace on this continent for almost a century.
Poland, to come now to the East, is perfectly aligned with the three European powers, Tusk’s Poland is creative and proactive. Romania should support it closely.
Because Romania, contrary to defeatist opinions, has the means, has the people to carry it out and above all, it has a reason.
In addition to all this, Romania is wanted as a guest at Europe’s big table, and all it has to do is to play the anti-Putin card hard and efficiently, to have a pragmatic attitude with clear and sharp limits in the relationship with Trump’s America and to take the initiative in the dialogue with the European partners who were by its side in its darkest moment since the collapse of communism until now.
Finally, it is worth all of us to start becoming aware of the potential of the crisis that will be established among the so-called sovereigntist movements in European countries (the movement of this type in Romania will not be exempt from the new dynamics either).
Cultivated, promoted and financed by Moscow for years, these movements were for a while a roaring success. And with the success of Trumpism, their position seemed to become even more promising.
But Trumpism acted so brutally towards these countries that their governments began to react accordingly. With each new hostile step taken by Trump against European economies, the ability of European Trumpists to serenely associate themselves with trumpism in its crude form will also be eroded. Because the European economies will be hit hard if the trade wars that Trump threatens the old continent with are implemented. And the more European countries arm themselves, investing European money, developing European weapons and acquiring European weapons, the association with Putin will become more and more embarrassing.
Electorally speaking, no far-right European party will be able to explain to the public, without feeling the associated costs, why it remains attached to the Trump movement while the Trump movement reduces profits or produces losses among farmers and industries in the countries of Europe. Likewise, it will be increasingly difficult for each far-right party to justify why it has a sweet relationship with Putin, while because of Putin taxpayers’ money in their own country must be redirected more and more to the military-industrial complex. Fantastic is the irony of fate! Trump and Putin will contribute, in the new reality built by Trump and Putin, to the collapse of the far right promoted by Trump and Putin
Then there is the fact that as the EU finds solutions to inject hundreds of billions of euros into the development of military production capacities on the continent, which will naturally translate into job creation, growing sales and genuine European sovereignty on the rise, through collapsing US imports, the pro-Trump and pro-Putin arguments of so many far-right parties will diminish by themselves.
In other words, Putinist-Trumpist sovereignty on the continent is threatened by a downward trajectory rather than caressed by the premises of an upward trajectory. Thanks to Trumpism, thanks to Putinism!
As for Romania, rationally Calin Georgescu has no future except behind bars, Russia no longer has aces up its sleeve, but only emergency solutions. In addition, Trump’s America is rapidly losing influence globally, it is no longer welcome in Europe, Canada, Mexico, soon it will probably hit a wall in East Asia, and domestically Trumpism will soon be called to account for the misfortunes caused to the economy.
Romania is going through a difficult moment, the most difficult so far for the generations after 1989, but it is also a moment like no other that made sense to fight, because we are really fighting for something meaningful.
