Easter 2025 is upon us, and while chocolate bunnies are hopping off the shelves, the confectionery industry faces a complex mix of sweet sales and bitter challenges. With cocoa prices decreasing but still high and uncertainty in the global markets due to Trump’s tariffs, customers might savor this year an expensive chocolate that might yet be cheaper compared with the years to come, writes eToro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.
Despite rising prices, when it comes to chocolate, most global consumers (66%) say they have maintained the same consumption level as last year, with 18% saying that they increased it, while only 16% say they purchased less of it, according to a report published by cocoa specialist company Barry-Callebaut. Worth over $130 billion in global retail sales in 2024, the chocolate confectionery market is expected to grow at a compounded aggregated rate of 5.2% over the next 5 years to 2029.
Companies like Hershey or Mondelez – the owner of brands like Milka, Toblerone, 7Days and Cadbury, among others – have historically seen significant revenue boosts during the Easter season. However, the sweetness has been tempered by soaring cocoa prices. Over the past five years, cocoa prices have almost tripled, up 280% due to West Africa production concerns. We have also seen this increase in Cocoa prices reflected in Romania’s March inflation. Cocoa and coffee prices rose by 7.38% in the past 12 months and almost 3% since February 2025. However, relief may be close, as Cocoa futures have seen their prices decrease by almost 29% from the beginning of the year.
Chocolate manufacturers have been raising prices, reducing product sizes, and exploring alternative ingredients to maintain profitability. This created an interesting situation in the market. According to the International Cocoa Organization (ICO), the markets are seeing a weakening of cocoa demand that also played a role in the bearish developments observed in cocoa prices from the beginning of the year. By mid-April, the regional associations will publish their quarterly grindings data and this might give a clearer picture of the demand. But, in March 2025, cocoa beans stocks at ICE Futures London increased by 68% from 34,070 tonnes to 57,390 tonnes. At ICE Futures New York, for the same time frame, cocoa beans stocks rose by 25% from 1,463,836 bags to 1,833,665 bags.
Another interesting factor is that the production forecasts of the major producing countries are likely to be better than the 2023/24 season. This forecast does not include the Ivory Coast, where extended drought threatens production. According to the ICO, it is likely that production from other countries could offset the projected losses from the Ivorian mid-crop.
Cocoa production is also facing future challenges due to global warming and changes in weather patterns. West Africa, which supplies about 70% of the world’s cocoa, has faced excessive rainfall and rising temperatures. These have created poor growing conditions, leading to lower yields. With global temperatures continuing to fluctuate unpredictably, cocoa farmers might be struggling to keep production high enough to meet demand. In addition to weather issues, cocoa crops in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—the world’s top producers—are being hit by Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV). This disease significantly reduces the lifespan of cocoa trees and has been spreading rapidly across plantations, further limiting supply.
But the picture of how cocoa prices will evolve in the short run is fogged due to the current US economic policies. Adding to the industry’s challenges, the US has announced new tariffs, including a 21% duty on cocoa imports from the Ivory Coast and 10% from Ghana (these numbers will likely be negotiated with the US administration). These tariffs threaten to increase production costs for American chocolate companies, potentially leading to higher consumer prices and strained supply chains. The Ivory Coast has indicated it may raise cocoa prices further in response, which would worsen cost pressures for chocolate producers and consumers alike. The EU’s upcoming Deforestation Regulation, set to take effect in December 2025, will also require companies to ensure their cocoa is sourced sustainably, adding another layer of complexity to supply chain management.
Despite these hurdles, chocolate companies are adapting, focusing on cost hedging, innovation and premium offerings that can absorb higher costs. As consumers continue to embrace holiday traditions, the chocolate industry faces a complex landscape shaped by rising tariffs and economic pressures. Their ability to adapt will be crucial in maintaining the balance between delivering cherished holiday treats and managing economic realities.
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