The war in Ukraine will end in 2026 or 2027 only if Putin falls from power (thanks to domestic, external or natural factors) or if the Russian army is driven out of Ukraine, such as it were defeated like Nazi Germany and the situation could catalyze the collapse of the dictator (which also happened in the case of Nazi Germany).
Otherwise, the Russian-Ukrainian war will only continue, because:
- The Kremlin leader has long been left without a retirement option that is not only honorable, but also one that does not come with staggering political and personal costs. In fact, even from Afghanistan in the 80s the order to withdraw the Soviet hordes was not given by the Russian leader who ordered the invasion (Brezhnev was already two meters underground), but by a successor, Mikhail Gorbachev.
- Ukraine cannot afford to stop defending itself from Russia, especially since, despite the growing difficulties generated by the war, the alternative to the heroic continuation of the fighting for Ukrainians would be infinitely more painful: persecution, slavery, deportations, an annihilation of their identity.
- Europe cannot afford to betray Ukraine, as that would imply the very fact of betraying its own security, stability and development.
- China admitted, including last summer, through the voice of its foreign minister, that it cannot afford Russia to lose; which means that if Russia is unable to win, then at least it must continue – and Beijing is unhesitatingly keeping Moscow on infusions in this regard.
- Finally, Donald Trump proved powerless enough to give Ukraine the coup de grace for the benefit of Russia. He tried his best for a whole year, there’s nothing to say, but fortunately both the American state, the Ukrainian state, and the European partners had and still have enough cards in their hands to continue obstructing the most reckless thoughts of the Trumpian approaches.
For both scenarios to become reality – the collapse of Putin or the collapse of his army – an intervention from the outside is therefore necessary, the intervention of factors independent of Putin’s will and control (whether it is a coup d’état or inside job, a revolution, a sudden death or… Trump).
The irony of history is invariably cruel, and the Russian-Ukrainian war cannot escape its fire either.
If we take a realistic look at the chances that exist for peace in Ukraine, we will easily notice that the essential ingredients revolve around the person of the American president.
He is the one who really has all the cards to contribute decisively to the success of what direction the conflict goes in: its continuation or cessation.
Trump cannot stop the war by pressuring only Ukraine (this has already been tested in 2025), but he could stop it by pressuring Russia (2026 offers all the reasons for testing).
For the leader in the White House there should be no dilemmas, it’s an almost arithmetical calculation: since the war doesn’t stop unless Putin stops it, and Putin can’t afford to stop it, then you either force the war to stop over Putin’s head, or you play a role in Putin’s demise.
Donald Trump’s mind works in a binary way_ things are black or white and he has a tendency to put a personal spin on problems that he deals with. This could be seen in the first year of his second term and it also happened in his first term, something that has been described by many close and former high-ranking collaborators (there is a rich literature on the subject).
It is, therefore, quite curious that so far Trump has become extremely complicated and has not understood the simple and correct reasoning for attacking the Russian-Ukrainian problem. It would be even more curious if he doesn’t understand everything even from 2026 onwards, after a multitude of strong signals that he received in 2025.
The only reasonable explanation for Trump not to change his approach from now on is one related to the existence of those long-suspected strings, through which the Kremlin dictator can manipulate the movements of the leader in the White House.
But even if those strings exist (and the truth is that nothing Trump has done so far has dampened suspicions in this regard), the American president still risks having more and more to lose by playing along with Putin than with breaking with him.
After four years of war, which have also fueled a host of dangerous problems worldwide, the stakes in Ukraine have become so high that the issue will end up crushing Trump regardless of whether the American leader accepts or ignores reality.
The situation in which the US president finds himself is hardly enviable. After all, in the Russian question, Donald Trump has to choose between an aggressive and rampant cancer and a slow-evolving cancer.
He has a choice between continuing to serve Putin, therefore the form of cancer with zero chance of cure, or supporting Zelensky like no one before him, in which case he can hope for some form of rehabilitation.
2026 is not starting too well for anyone, but in Trump’s case it can at least develop relatively promisingly, to the extent that Trump decides to do something about it.
The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian is apparently consuming the American president’s attention around the clock, while if he builds real premises for a just peace, it will blow wind into his sails. In both situations, the millstone hanging around Donald Trump’s neck has one name: Vladimir Putin.
And Donald Trump has the scissors in the Oval Office to cut it.
