JD’s Excellent Adventure

A pair of vice-presidential visits to Hungary and Pakistan underscore the enigma that is JD Vance

JD Vance – who once called Trump “noxious” and a “bad person” leading his voters to “a very dark place” – is on a global mission as the uunshaven semi-reasonable face of Trumpism. It is every bit as ridiculous as you might think.

In Budapest in recent days, Vance endorsed Europe’s icon of illiberalism, Viktor Orban, while at the same time, and with a straight baby-face, denouncing the European Union for supposed “interference” in Hungary’s politics. Orban, the international oracle of the idea that a majority rule is the only democratic principle that matters, faces his most serious electoral challenge Sunday in over a decade, with multiple recent polls showing Peter Magyar’s Tisza party ahead.

In Islamabad, a vice president with no meaningful diplomatic track record has been inserted into the highest-stakes negotiations in decades, facing the surviving Iranian bigs as they demand – in utter indifference to the thrashing their regime has taken – control guarantees over the Strait of Hormuz.

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Taken together, the two episodes amount to a masterclass in the incoherence of the current American posture abroad — and in the peculiar way Vance has become its most polished vessel: a full-throated Trump loyalist who nevertheless speaks in complete sentences and projects a modern managerial competence, complete with the de rigueur stubble now weirdly standard among men under 45.

Let’s take a look at JD’s excellent adventure.

Hungary: interfere, and accuse others of interfereing

In Budapest, the US vice president endorsed Orban at a moment when he faces real electoral vulnerability. Recent polling shows his Fidesz party trailing, with some polls placing Tisza in the high 40s and Fidesz in the high 30s. Even allowing for volatility and a large undecided bloc, Hungary has become competitive again. The secret is that Magyar is not actually a leftist, and that Orban has become hubristically indifferent to his failure to engineer prosperity for Hungary.

This is huge, because Orban is not merely a national conservative figure. He has become the central global reference point for “illiberal democracy” — a model that asserts that elections are the sole meaningful expression of democratic legitimacy, while systematically weakening the institutional constraints that give democracy its substance. In this narrative, courts are unelected obstacles, journalism is the enemy of the people, and civil servant gatekeepers become “deep state” saboteurs.

It is a model that has found admirers far beyond Hungary, and its most devoted adherent may be Trump himself. Another one is Vladimir Putin, who deployed a similar playbook enroute to making Russia a full dictatorship. Both Putin and Trump back Orban, therefore, and all three of them hate the European Union.

So Vance dutifully praised Orban for standing up for “sovereignty” in the face of “nameless” bureaucrats who supposedly would take it away. Putin hates the EU because he wants a weaker and divided neighbor to his east. Orban is a nationalist. Trump is Trump. But Vance knows better. And it doesn’t matter.

The European Union is not an external actor imposing alien will; it is the institutional framework Hungary voluntarily joined, complete with agreed-upon standards for rule-of-law governance. If it were applying to be admitted to the EU today, Hungary would be rejected because of Orban’s installing of an authoritarian system.

Considering that the (ultimately failed) 1956 Hungarian revolution was a landmark moement of the Cold War, it is grim to observe how Orban’s Hungary has maintained a warm relationship with Moscow, including continued energy engagement even as Europe has tried to reduce dependence on Russian supplies.

And when a top American political figure adopts Orban’s language of resistance to “EU interference,” he is stepping into a global argument about whether liberal institutional constraints are essential to democracy — or optional appendages that can be stripped away once elections are secured. They are, to be clear, the essence of the US Constitution. Trump doesn’t know it; Vance certainly does, and is pretending.

Pakistan and Iran: diplomacy under pressure

From Hungary Vance travelled to Pakistan, where America risks snatching defeat from the proverbial jaws of victory. There, the United States on Saturday was engaged in direct talks with Iran, with Vance leading the American delegation. The talks aim to stabilize a fragile ceasefire after about 40 days of war.

It is an odd situation. Iran has been thrashed by the US and Israel, pretty much as you’d expect. Much of its military is gone, its long-serving Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed along with scores of top political and military officials, the attacking forces controlled its skies for over a month, and on and on. Yet the regime has not fallen, and Iran is now trying to dictate terms. They make a good show of feigning indifference to being further mauled.

Iran’s negotiating position includes demands tied to the Strait of Hormuz framework, linkage of any broader settlement to a truce in Lebanon, and broader economic and sanctions relief. Tehran is doing this because Trump is projecting that the US wants to end the war, and because the Iranians have succeeded in scaring the entire world with their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – an asymmetric win achieved with cheap drones and mines.

They have also fired at the Persian Gulf petrostatelets, aligned with the US, and dependent for their business model on skittish Brits and the like moving to Dubai for a tax haven and indoor summer skiing. Definitely not for Iranian missiles.

The US is vastly superior militarily. But Iran is vastly more determined and fanatical and patient, and ub the talks they are facing a vice president who is pretty close to an isolationist and who disliked the war from the beginning.

America should be insisting not just on the reopening of the Strait but on Iran forking over all its enriched uranium (or allowing teams to dig it out of the rubble) and ending its missile program as well as funding of proxy militias around the region. That will require a credible threat to renew the war. Vance does not seem the right messenger for such a threat. That is the paradox of these talks. The desire to end a conflict quickly can, under certain conditions, become part of the bargaining environment itself.

From critic to quisling

How on earth did Vance get to this position? Vance’s political trajectory is a fascinating case study. Married to a woman of Indian background who was a Democrat until recently, Vance entered public life about a decade ago as a critic of Trump-era populism, part of a conservative intelligentsia that viewed Trump as destabilizing, institutionally corrosive, and strategically incoherent. His language at the time reflected that distance, often in unusually direct terms that have since been widely documented and repeatedly revisited.

“I’m a ‘Never Trump’ guy,” Vance said in a 2916 interview.” “I never liked him.” “My god what an idiot,” Vance wrote in a tweet that is now deleted. He once questioned whether Trump could be “America’s Hitler” in a private Facebook message in 2016 to one of his former roommates. In an op-ed for The New York Times he wrote: “Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.”

Right. That the Democrats failed to make hay out of this explains why the world is in this pickle, with a US president threatening to pull out of NATO, having pulled out of the World Health Organization.

Today, Vance is not merely aligned with Trumpism. He is embedded within its governing structure as a central actor. Yet unlike Trump, Vance somehow presents calm control. His communication style is disciplined, structured, and carefully articulated. He speaks in complete sentences, projects analytical calm, and often resembles a managerial figure navigating complexity rather than an insurgent disrupting it. He seems like a guy who probably wouldn’t post threats to wipe out a whole civilization, as Trump did last week.

All of it adds up to a type of hypocrisy that is as simple as can be and as old as the hills: opportunism.